Te Aroha

—Rail: True—10:23–13:57

Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 4 July 14:06 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

Meeting overview

Te Aroha in NZ hosts a provincial meeting on —. The rail is True. There are 7 races scheduled from 10:23 to 13:57.

The card

Distances run from 1,150m to 3,500m across the card. The class mix is 3 maidens, 2 benchmark races, and 2 other races. The card leans toward middle-distance races. The feature race of the day is The Great New Zealand Jumps Carnival 18th & 20th September Hrdl.

What history says

Over 139 races from 2025-06-02 to 2026-06-21, settling position flags backmarkers (11+) as the clearest profile, underperforming market expectation (0.00 A/E, 0.0% strike rate).

Jockey Craig Grylls has 2 runners and a 22.8% local strike rate from 57 runs (1.23 A/E) and Trainer D R Wiles has 2 runners and a 11.9% local strike rate from 42 runs (1.18 A/E).

This overview is generated automatically from real race data by the HoofMetrics data engine — it is not AI-written. If you have feedback, email hello@hoofmetrics.com.Generated by HoofMetrics data engine (deterministic).

Track profile: Te Aroha

139 races · 1421 runners · since 2025-06-02

Today’s angles — 2+ runners here today & A/E > 1

TDebbie Sweeney2 todayA/E 2.91TMs D Logan3 todayA/E 1.70TP & J Brosnan5 todayA/E 1.28JJoe Nishizuka3 todayA/E 1.24JCraig Grylls2 todayA/E 1.23TS & E Clotworthy4 todayA/E 1.23JJasmine Fawcett2 todayA/E 1.18TD R Wiles2 todayA/E 1.18

Barrier draw

	Runs	Wins	% Win	SR	A/E
Inside (1–4)	527	51	36.7%	9.7%	0.77
Middle (5–9)	593	60	43.2%	10.1%	0.83
Wide (10+)	301	28	20.1%	9.3%	1.01

Settling position

	Runs	Wins	% Win	SR	A/E
Leaders (1–3)	99	18	12.9%	18.2%	1.33
On-pace (4–6)	99	10	7.2%	10.1%	0.96
Midfield (7–10)	120	5	3.6%	4.2%	0.40
Backmarkers (11+)	56	0	0%	0%	0.00
Unknown	1047	106	76.3%	10.1%	0.84

Market (SP)

	Runs	Wins	% Win	SR	A/E
Odds-on (≤$2)	15	9	6.5%	60%	0.99
Pop ($2–5)	220	61	43.9%	27.7%	0.96
Mid ($5–10)	387	43	30.9%	11.1%	0.79
Roughie (>$10)	799	26	18.7%	3.3%	0.66

A/E = actual wins ÷ market-expected wins (Σ 1/SP). Above 1.0 (green) beats the market here; below 0.9 (red) lags. Strong bias day = a past meeting where one run-style won >65% of races (≥5 winners). “Today” = runners engaged here today.