Te Aroha R1

10:23The Great New Zealand Jumps Carnival 18th & 20th September Hrdl

3100mRest 1 Win HurdleRail: True

Races1 2 3 4 5 6 7Track

Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 4 July 14:10 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

Early model rankings — previewupdated race morning · not final

Early model — previewEarly predictions — these WILL MOST LIKELY change with final scratchings, jockey changes and track condition updatesEntropy3.25top 3

Ranked 1st

4. Empire State

Mathew Gillies (1)

Ranked 2nd

12. My Maebelline Girl

Nick Downs (11)

Ranked 3rd

2. The Belvoir

Will Featherstone (4)

Predicted speed mapback → finish →

Backmarkers2

settle 11+

7Brother Max(3)

10St Vincent(5)

Midfield3

settle 7–10

4Empire State(1)

8Fabian Hawk(8)

9I'lberidingshotgun(9)

On-pace3

settle 3–6

2The Belvoir(4)

11Leprekhan(7)

6Leitrim Lad(10)

Leaders3

pushing for the lead

5Uhtred(2)

1Hidalgo(6)

12My Maebelline Girl(11)

Historical overview

Across the 14 sampled runnings of 3100m at Te Aroha: Unknown — 13 of 14 winners (92.9% of winners, 11.0% strike, 0.84 A/E). From the gates, Middle (5–9) — 7 of 14 winners (50.0% of winners, 11.5% strike, 0.93 A/E).

Today's going is not yet confirmed, so no going-specific split is shown — the broad sample above carries the read until race morning.

Market history at this trip: odds-on favourites are 0 from 1 (0.0% strike, 0.0 A/E); roughies (>$10) supply 14.3% of winners.

Historical leans

Unknown is the strongest settle band on the sample
Middle (5–9) barriers lead the draw splits

Deterministic data read — figures restated from this track and trip's sampled runnings, no interpretation applied. The full speed-map read and model picks follow race morning after final scratchings.

This overview is generated automatically from real race data by the HoofMetrics data engine — it is not AI-written. If you have feedback, email hello@hoofmetrics.com.Generated by HoofMetrics data engine (deterministic).

Distance stats

Distance

3100m · 14 races (14 winners)

Barrier draw

	Runs	Wins	% Win	SR	A/E
Inside (1–4)	54	6	42.9%	11.1%	0.72
Middle (5–9)	61	7	50%	11.5%	0.93
Wide (10+)	13	1	7.1%	7.7%	1.06

Settling position

	Runs	Wins	% Win	SR	A/E
Leaders (1–3)	3	1	7.1%	33.3%	2.41
On-pace (4–6)	3	0	0%	0%	0.00
Midfield (7–10)	4	0	0%	0%	0.00
Unknown	118	13	92.9%	11%	0.84

Market (SP)

	Runs	Wins	% Win	SR	A/E
Odds-on (≤$2)	1	0	0%	0%	0.00
Pop ($2–5)	25	9	64.3%	36%	1.21
Mid ($5–10)	41	3	21.4%	7.3%	0.56
Roughie (>$10)	61	2	14.3%	3.3%	0.60