HoofMetricsdata · model · edge
← Te ArohaSunday 5 July 2026

Te Aroha R7

13:57Trac Sportsbar Matamata (Bm65)
1400mBenchmark 65Rail: True
Races1234567

Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 4 July 14:10 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

Early model rankings — previewupdated race morning · not final
Early model — previewEarly predictions — these WILL MOST LIKELY change with final scratchings, jockey changes and track condition updatesEntropy3.77top 3
Ranked 1st
3. Sir Fergus
Craig Grylls (1)
Ranked 2nd
7. Amusement
Tom Wigram (14)
Ranked 3rd
4. Feint To East
George Rooke (12)
Predicted speed mapback → finish →
Backmarkers3
settle 11+
2 Sacred Combatant(10)
6 So Be It(13)
1 King William(17)
Midfield9
settle 7–10
3 Sir Fergus(1)
11 Takeachance(2)
18 Suavetta(4)
12 Polamalu(7)
13 Koro's Princess(8)
16 With Grace(9)
4 Feint To East(12)
7 Amusement(14)
17 Little Darling(15)
On-pace6
settle 3–6
5 Empressive(3)
8 Zeffert(5)
15 Return Message(6)
10 She'll Be Right(11)
14 Sally(16)
9 Izola(18)
Leaders0
pushing for the lead
—

Historical overview

Across the 32 sampled runnings of 1400m at Te Aroha: Unknown — 21 of 32 winners (65.6% of winners, 9.4% strike, 0.84 A/E). No winner in this sample settled 11+ back. From the gates, Middle (5–9) — 12 of 32 winners (37.5% of winners, 8.5% strike, 0.82 A/E).

Narrowed to today's rail position (1400m · True, 12 races): Unknown — 9 of 12 winners (75.0% of winners, 10.3% strike, 0.84 A/E).

Market history at this trip: odds-on favourites are 1 from 1 (100.0% strike, 2.0 A/E); roughies (>$10) supply 28.1% of winners.

Historical leans

  • Unknown is the strongest settle band on the sample
  • Middle (5–9) barriers lead the draw splits
  • Short-priced runners have historically held their market at this trip

Deterministic data read — figures restated from this track and trip's sampled runnings, no interpretation applied. The full speed-map read and model picks follow race morning after final scratchings.

This overview is generated automatically from real race data by the HoofMetrics data engine — it is not AI-written. If you have feedback, email hello@hoofmetrics.com.Generated by HoofMetrics data engine (deterministic).

Distance stats

Distance
1400m · 32 races (32 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)120928.1%7.5%0.66
Middle (5–9)1421237.5%8.5%0.82
Wide (10+)971134.4%11.3%1.11

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)33721.9%21.2%1.52
On-pace (4–6)3339.4%9.1%0.86
Midfield (7–10)4413.1%2.3%0.29
Backmarkers (11+)2500%0%0.00
Unknown2242165.6%9.4%0.84

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)113.1%100%2.00
Pop ($2–5)531237.5%22.6%0.79
Mid ($5–10)851031.2%11.8%0.82
Roughie (>$10)220928.1%4.1%0.86