HoofMetricsdata · model · edge
← Te ArohaSunday 5 July 2026

Te Aroha R6

13:19AgPlus Te Aroha Mdn
1150mMaidenRail: True
Races1234567

Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 4 July 14:10 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

Early model rankings — previewupdated race morning · not final
Early model — previewEarly predictions — these WILL MOST LIKELY change with final scratchings, jockey changes and track condition updatesEntropy3.1top 3
Ranked 1st
5. Kahului
George Rooke (1)
Ranked 2nd
1. Asal
Erin M Leighton (8)
Ranked 3rd
8. Must Bee
A Lawson-Carroll (3)
Predicted speed mapback → finish →
No data3
no recent settle
5 Kahului(1)
10 Sonar(4)
3 Reggae Man(5)
Backmarkers2
settle 11+
4 Aim Up(2)
6 Swey Fortune(7)
Midfield2
settle 7–10
8 Must Bee(3)
7 Perfectly Set(11)
On-pace3
settle 3–6
1 Asal(8)
11 Summit Rendezvous(9)
9 Tainted Love(10)
Leaders1
pushing for the lead
2 Emac(6)

Historical overview

Across the 30 sampled runnings of 1150m at Te Aroha: Unknown — 20 of 30 winners (66.7% of winners, 11.2% strike, 0.84 A/E). No winner in this sample settled 11+ back. From the gates, Middle (5–9) — 14 of 30 winners (46.7% of winners, 11.6% strike, 0.91 A/E).

Narrowed to today's rail position (1150m · True, 10 races): Unknown — 7 of 10 winners (70.0% of winners, 16.3% strike, 0.83 A/E).

Market history at this trip: odds-on favourites are 4 from 5 (80.0% strike, 1.26 A/E); roughies (>$10) supply 3.3% of winners.

Historical leans

  • Unknown is the strongest settle band on the sample
  • Middle (5–9) barriers lead the draw splits
  • Short-priced runners have historically held their market at this trip

Deterministic data read — figures restated from this track and trip's sampled runnings, no interpretation applied. The full speed-map read and model picks follow race morning after final scratchings.

This overview is generated automatically from real race data by the HoofMetrics data engine — it is not AI-written. If you have feedback, email hello@hoofmetrics.com.Generated by HoofMetrics data engine (deterministic).

Distance stats

Distance
1150m · 30 races (30 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)1111240%10.8%0.83
Middle (5–9)1211446.7%11.6%0.91
Wide (10+)59413.3%6.8%0.67

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)30620%20%1.32
On-pace (4–6)3026.7%6.7%0.72
Midfield (7–10)3526.7%5.7%0.51
Backmarkers (11+)1700%0%0.00
Unknown1792066.7%11.2%0.84

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)5413.3%80%1.26
Pop ($2–5)481136.7%22.9%0.82
Mid ($5–10)881446.7%15.9%1.11
Roughie (>$10)15013.3%0.7%0.15