HoofMetricsdata · model · edge
← Te ArohaSunday 5 July 2026

Te Aroha R5

12:48Gibson Construction (Bm65)
2200mBenchmark 65Rail: True
Races1234567

Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 4 July 14:10 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

Early model rankings — previewupdated race morning · not final
Early model — previewEarly predictions — these WILL MOST LIKELY change with final scratchings, jockey changes and track condition updatesEntropy2.92top 3
Ranked 1st
2. Mobilized
Hamish Mc Neill (5)
Ranked 2nd
5. Rosina
Kylan Wiles (6)
Ranked 3rd
1. Murphy
Emily Farr (2)
Predicted speed mapback → finish →
Backmarkers2
settle 11+
7 Playinasandpit(7)
9 Middle Khan(10)
Midfield2
settle 7–10
11 Our Jasmine(8)
6 Dembe(9)
On-pace6
settle 3–6
3 Lae Zee(1)
1 Murphy(2)
8 Star Warrior(3)
4 Te Atatu Memphis(4)
2 Mobilized(5)
5 Rosina(6)
Leaders0
pushing for the lead
—

Historical overview

Across the 23 sampled runnings of 2200m at Te Aroha: Unknown — 18 of 23 winners (78.3% of winners, 9.6% strike, 0.84 A/E). From the gates, Middle (5–9) — 12 of 23 winners (52.2% of winners, 12.6% strike, 1.0 A/E).

Narrowed to today's rail position (2200m · True, 10 races): Unknown — 8 of 10 winners (80.0% of winners, 9.5% strike, 0.84 A/E).

Market history at this trip: odds-on favourites are 0 from 1 (0.0% strike, 0.0 A/E); roughies (>$10) supply 21.7% of winners.

Historical leans

  • Unknown is the strongest settle band on the sample
  • Middle (5–9) barriers lead the draw splits

Deterministic data read — figures restated from this track and trip's sampled runnings, no interpretation applied. The full speed-map read and model picks follow race morning after final scratchings.

This overview is generated automatically from real race data by the HoofMetrics data engine — it is not AI-written. If you have feedback, email hello@hoofmetrics.com.Generated by HoofMetrics data engine (deterministic).

Distance stats

Distance
2200m · 23 races (23 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)88730.4%8%0.64
Middle (5–9)951252.2%12.6%1.00
Wide (10+)50417.4%8%0.87

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)1528.7%13.3%0.89
On-pace (4–6)1528.7%13.3%0.84
Midfield (7–10)1314.3%7.7%0.83
Backmarkers (11+)200%0%0.00
Unknown1881878.3%9.6%0.84

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)100%0%0.00
Pop ($2–5)351252.2%34.3%1.12
Mid ($5–10)66626.1%9.1%0.64
Roughie (>$10)131521.7%3.8%0.73