HoofMetricsdata · model · edge
← Port MacquarieSaturday 4 July 2026

Port Macquarie R1

13:01Dux Hot Water Mdn Hcp
1004mMaidenRail: +2mEarly preview · published 3 July 14:12 AEST — updated race morning
Races123456
Early mail — tomorrow's fields. Fields, barriers and stats published early (3 July 14:12 AEST). Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.
Early model rankings — previewearly predictions · not final
Early model predictions only. These WILL MOST LIKELY change with final scratchings, jockey changes and track condition updates — the final day's predictions and commentary are published race morning.
Early model — previewEarly predictions — these WILL MOST LIKELY change with final scratchings, jockey changes and track condition updatesEntropy2.61top 3
Ranked 1st
9. Tesorino
Mikayla Weir (1)
Ranked 2nd
2. In Bocca Al Lupe
Raymond Spokes (9)
Ranked 3rd
3. Tassie Lee
Liberty Smyth (7)
Predicted speed mapback → finish →
No data2
no recent settle
5 Krasaki(2)
1 Hear A Symphony(6)
Backmarkers0
settle 11+
—
Midfield3
settle 7–10
4 Carafe(3)
7 Bon Batan(5)
8 One For Hesko(8)
On-pace3
settle 3–6
9 Tesorino(1)
6 The Michael(4)
3 Tassie Lee(7)
Leaders1
pushing for the lead
2 In Bocca Al Lupe(9)

Historical overview

Across the 36 sampled runnings of 1004m at Port Macquarie: Leaders (settle 1–3) — 19 of 36 winners (52.8% of winners, 18.6% strike, 1.12 A/E). From the gates, Middle (5–9) — 19 of 36 winners (52.8% of winners, 13.6% strike, 1.11 A/E).

Narrowed to today's rail position (1004m · +2m ±1m, 11 races): Leaders (settle 1–3) — 7 of 11 winners (63.6% of winners, 23.3% strike, 1.53 A/E).

Market history at this trip: odds-on favourites are 5 from 7 (71.4% strike, 1.18 A/E); roughies (>$10) supply 25.0% of winners.

Historical leans

  • Leaders (settle 1–3) is the strongest settle band on the sample
  • Middle (5–9) barriers lead the draw splits
  • Short-priced runners have historically held their market at this trip

Deterministic data read — figures restated from this track and trip's sampled runnings, no interpretation applied. The full speed-map read and model picks follow race morning after final scratchings.

This overview is generated automatically from real race data by the HoofMetrics data engine — it is not AI-written. If you have feedback, email hello@hoofmetrics.com.Generated by HoofMetrics data engine (deterministic).

Full speed-map read and model picks arrive race morning, once final scratchings and track condition are known.

Distance stats

Distance
1004m · 36 races (36 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)1341336.1%9.7%0.57
Middle (5–9)1401952.8%13.6%1.11
Wide (10+)31411.1%12.9%1.17

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)1021952.8%18.6%1.12
On-pace (4–6)991027.8%10.1%0.64
Midfield (7–10)79513.9%6.3%0.62
Backmarkers (11+)400%0%0.00
Unknown2125.6%9.5%0.80

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)7513.9%71.4%1.18
Pop ($2–5)761644.4%21.1%0.72
Mid ($5–10)77616.7%7.8%0.58
Roughie (>$10)145925%6.2%1.39