HoofMetricsdata · model · edge
← Port MacquarieSaturday 4 July 2026

Port Macquarie R5

15:26Fisher’s Plumbing Plus (Bm58)
1506mBenchmark 58Rail: +2mEarly preview · published 3 July 14:12 AEST — updated race morning
Races123456
Early mail — tomorrow's fields. Fields, barriers and stats published early (3 July 14:12 AEST). Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.
Early model rankings — previewearly predictions · not final
Early model predictions only. These WILL MOST LIKELY change with final scratchings, jockey changes and track condition updates — the final day's predictions and commentary are published race morning.
Early model — previewEarly predictions — these WILL MOST LIKELY change with final scratchings, jockey changes and track condition updatesEntropy3.33top 3
Ranked 1st
2. Rose Water
Ben Looker (7)
Ranked 2nd
4. Charmed Destiny
Teighan Worsnop (1)
Ranked 3rd
3. Venom Wolf
Raymond Spokes (8)
Predicted speed mapback → finish →
Backmarkers3
settle 11+
4 Charmed Destiny(1)
7 Dreymon(2)
11 Think I'm Irish(9)
Midfield6
settle 7–10
15 Rebel One(4)
3 Venom Wolf(8)
13 Winters Ending(10)
5 Deep Drive(12)
14 Counterpart(13)
16 Gold Something(15)
On-pace3
settle 3–6
9 Spring Blossom(5)
2 Rose Water(7)
8 Look At Mego(11)
Leaders3
pushing for the lead
6 Ken'ker(3)
10 Percolate(6)
12 Grand Voile(14)

Historical overview

Across the 48 sampled runnings of 1506m at Port Macquarie: Leaders (settle 1–3) — 18 of 48 winners (37.5% of winners, 14.0% strike, 0.96 A/E). From the gates, Middle (5–9) — 24 of 48 winners (50.0% of winners, 11.8% strike, 1.0 A/E).

Narrowed to today's rail position (1506m · +2m ±1m, 13 races): On-pace (settle 4–6) — 7 of 13 winners (53.8% of winners, 23.3% strike, 1.54 A/E).

Market history at this trip: odds-on favourites are 5 from 12 (41.7% strike, 0.74 A/E); roughies (>$10) supply 22.9% of winners.

Historical leans

  • Leaders (settle 1–3) is the strongest settle band on the sample
  • Middle (5–9) barriers lead the draw splits
  • Favourites underperform their market share at this trip on this sample

Deterministic data read — figures restated from this track and trip's sampled runnings, no interpretation applied. The full speed-map read and model picks follow race morning after final scratchings.

This overview is generated automatically from real race data by the HoofMetrics data engine — it is not AI-written. If you have feedback, email hello@hoofmetrics.com.Generated by HoofMetrics data engine (deterministic).

Full speed-map read and model picks arrive race morning, once final scratchings and track condition are known.

Distance stats

Distance
1506m · 48 races (48 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)1851837.5%9.7%0.72
Middle (5–9)2032450%11.8%1.00
Wide (10+)99612.5%6.1%0.62

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)1291837.5%14%0.96
On-pace (4–6)1271735.4%13.4%0.99
Midfield (7–10)145714.6%4.8%0.46
Backmarkers (11+)3612.1%2.8%0.64
Unknown50510.4%10%0.81

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)12510.4%41.7%0.74
Pop ($2–5)852245.8%25.9%0.89
Mid ($5–10)1151020.8%8.7%0.65
Roughie (>$10)2751122.9%4%0.94