HoofMetricsdata · model · edge
← Port MacquarieSaturday 4 July 2026

Port Macquarie R2

13:36Caroma Industries Mdn Plate
1204mMaidenRail: +2mEarly preview · published 3 July 14:12 AEST — updated race morning
Races123456
Early mail — tomorrow's fields. Fields, barriers and stats published early (3 July 14:12 AEST). Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.
Early model rankings — previewearly predictions · not final
Early model predictions only. These WILL MOST LIKELY change with final scratchings, jockey changes and track condition updates — the final day's predictions and commentary are published race morning.
Early model — previewEarly predictions — these WILL MOST LIKELY change with final scratchings, jockey changes and track condition updatesEntropy2.74top 3
Ranked 1st
5. Airburst
Ben Looker (6)
Ranked 2nd
8. Bound For Kos
Jon Grisedale (4)
Ranked 3rd
2. Habib Albi
Jeff Kehoe (1)
Predicted speed mapback → finish →
No data1
no recent settle
1 Dunnstan(7)
Backmarkers0
settle 11+
—
Midfield3
settle 7–10
7 Lykos(3)
8 Bound For Kos(4)
3 Irish Accolade(5)
On-pace4
settle 3–6
6 Double Or Quits(2)
5 Airburst(6)
9 Womensworld(8)
4 Rips Law(9)
Leaders1
pushing for the lead
2 Habib Albi(1)

Historical overview

Across the 50 sampled runnings of 1204m at Port Macquarie: Leaders (settle 1–3) — 28 of 50 winners (56.0% of winners, 19.9% strike, 1.23 A/E). From the gates, Middle (5–9) — 24 of 50 winners (48.0% of winners, 10.6% strike, 0.84 A/E).

Narrowed to today's rail position (1204m · +2m ±1m, 12 races): Leaders (settle 1–3) — 6 of 12 winners (50.0% of winners, 18.2% strike, 0.94 A/E).

Market history at this trip: odds-on favourites are 8 from 14 (57.1% strike, 0.87 A/E); roughies (>$10) supply 16.0% of winners.

Historical leans

  • Leaders (settle 1–3) is the strongest settle band on the sample
  • Middle (5–9) barriers lead the draw splits
  • Favourites underperform their market share at this trip on this sample

Deterministic data read — figures restated from this track and trip's sampled runnings, no interpretation applied. The full speed-map read and model picks follow race morning after final scratchings.

This overview is generated automatically from real race data by the HoofMetrics data engine — it is not AI-written. If you have feedback, email hello@hoofmetrics.com.Generated by HoofMetrics data engine (deterministic).

Full speed-map read and model picks arrive race morning, once final scratchings and track condition are known.

Distance stats

Distance
1204m · 50 races (50 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)1871632%8.6%0.66
Middle (5–9)2262448%10.6%0.84
Wide (10+)921020%10.9%1.17

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)1412856%19.9%1.23
On-pace (4–6)140918%6.4%0.50
Midfield (7–10)148918%6.1%0.63
Backmarkers (11+)4012%2.5%0.45
Unknown3636%8.3%0.77

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)14816%57.1%0.87
Pop ($2–5)822244%26.8%0.90
Mid ($5–10)1071224%11.2%0.81
Roughie (>$10)302816%2.6%0.63