Wangaratta R4

14:35Happy 60th Birthday Paul Winzer Hcp (56)
1590mRestricted 56Rail: True
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Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 5 July 14:08 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

Happy 60th Birthday Paul Winzer Hcp (56)a 1590m restricted 56 at Wangaratta, jumping at 14:35 on ground, rail true. 12 runners engaged.

At the trip

Wangaratta has staged 25 races at 1590m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: Middle (5–9) wins the most races here — 11 of 25 (44.0% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Pace: Settle position 4–6 wins the most races here — 11 of 25 (44.0% win share); Settle position 1–3 underperforms its market price — A/E 0.44 (3 from 66).
  • Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 12 of 25 (48.0% win share); Roughie (>$10) underperforms its market price — A/E 0.14 (1 from 171).

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions covers 20 runnings — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: edge tilts to Wide (10+) — A/E 0.92 (6 from 70); overall it's Middle (5–9).
  • Pace: edge tilts to Settle position 11+ — A/E 1.16 (4 from 41); overall it's Settle position 4–6.
  • Market: edge tilts to Pop ($2–5) — A/E 1.12 (11 from 35); overall it's Mid ($5–10).

Jockeys & trainers

  • Jockey Brad Rawiller: 27 from 173 (15.6%) in the last 90 days (11 of those in the last 30) — rides #1 Altruist here.
  • Trainer J E & C Ledger: 7 from 30 (23.3%) in the last 90 days — saddles #11 Soul Taker here.
  • Trainer Jamie Edwards: 11 from 72 (15.3%) in the last 90 days — saddles #4 El Sordo here.
  • Jockey John Keating is 2 from 18 at today’s meeting profile (11.1% strike, A/E 2.77) and has #6 Ideelistic here.
  • Jockey Logan McNeil is 2 from 28 at today’s meeting profile (7.1% strike, A/E 1.24) and has #5 Teddy Boy here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
1590m · 25 races (25 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)94832%8.5%0.68
Middle (5–9)1121144%9.8%0.94
Wide (10+)77624%7.8%0.84

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)66312%4.5%0.44
On-pace (4–6)661144%16.7%1.16
Midfield (7–10)77416%5.2%0.55
Backmarkers (11+)41416%9.8%1.16
Unknown33312%9.1%0.82

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)528%40%0.67
Pop ($2–5)421248%28.6%1.01
Mid ($5–10)651040%15.4%1.16
Roughie (>$10)17114%0.6%0.14