Beaudesert R1

12:43Roma & Esk July 11 Mdn Hcp
1650mMaidenRail: True
Races123456

Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 6 July 14:09 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

Roma & Esk July 11 Mdn Hcpa 1650m maiden at Beaudesert, jumping at 12:43 on ground, rail true. 8 runners engaged.

At the trip

Beaudesert has staged 19 races at 1650m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: Middle (5–9) wins the most races here — 9 of 19 (47.4% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Pace: Settle position 1–3 wins the most races here — 6 of 19 (31.6% win share); Settle position 4–6 underperforms its market price — A/E 0.47 (2 from 30).
  • Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 13 of 19 (68.4% win share); Roughie (>$10) underperforms its market price — A/E 0.49 (2 from 101).
  • Data note: settling position is unknown for 94 runners in this sample, which dilutes the pace numbers.

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions covers 14 runnings — indicative rather than conclusive.

  • Barrier draw: edge tilts to Wide (10+) — A/E 1.02 (3 from 27); overall it's Middle (5–9).
  • Pace: read holds — Settle position 1–3 again on top: A/E 1.11 (5 from 24).
  • Market: read holds — Mid ($5–10) again on top: A/E 1.29 (4 from 23).

Jockeys & trainers

  • Together, Benjamin Osmond × K A Lees are 7 from 35 (20.0%) in the last 90 days — they combine with #6 Taga Smile here.
  • Jockey Jag Guthmann-Chester: 6 from 34 (17.6%) in the last 30 days — rides #2 Weekend Spirit here.
  • Jockey Jaden Lloyd: 21 from 123 (17.1%) in the last 90 days (7 of those in the last 30) — rides #7 Bassett's Choice here.
  • Trainer Jack Bruce: 24 from 122 (19.7%) in the last 90 days (9 of those in the last 30) — saddles #2 Weekend Spirit here.
  • Jockey Georgina Cartwright is 6 from 19 at today’s meeting profile (31.6% strike, A/E 1.98) and has #8 Happy Coffee here.
  • Jockey Danny Peisley is 4 from 21 at today’s meeting profile (19.0% strike, A/E 1.23) and has #1 Meaner Than Most here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
1650m · 19 races (19 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)71736.8%9.9%0.66
Middle (5–9)85947.4%10.6%0.96
Wide (10+)31315.8%9.7%0.88

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)30631.6%20%1.11
On-pace (4–6)30210.5%6.7%0.47
Midfield (7–10)31210.5%6.5%0.85
Backmarkers (11+)200%0%0.00
Unknown94947.4%9.6%0.81

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Pop ($2–5)531368.4%24.5%0.87
Mid ($5–10)33421.1%12.1%0.93
Roughie (>$10)101210.5%2%0.49