Beaudesert R4

14:28Thangool Race Club July 18 Hcp (C2)
1200mClass 2Rail: True
Races123456

Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 6 July 14:09 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

Thangool Race Club July 18 Hcp (C2)a 1200m class 2 at Beaudesert, jumping at 14:28 on ground, rail true. 10 runners engaged.

At the trip

Beaudesert has staged 22 races at 1200m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: Middle (5–9) wins the most races here — 14 of 22 (63.6% win share) — and beats its market price too (A/E 1.23).
  • Pace: Settle position 1–3 wins the most races here — 9 of 22 (40.9% win share); Settle position 4–6 underperforms its market price — A/E 0.54 (4 from 44).
  • Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 10 of 22 (45.5% win share); the value band has been Mid ($5–10) — A/E 1.39 (9 from 47).
  • Data note: settling position is unknown for 73 runners in this sample, which dilutes the pace numbers.

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions covers 18 runnings — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: read holds — Middle (5–9) again on top: A/E 1.41 (13 from 68).
  • Pace: read holds — Settle position 1–3 again on top: A/E 1.23 (8 from 33).
  • Market: read holds — Mid ($5–10) again on top: A/E 1.49 (7 from 34).

Jockeys & trainers

  • Together, Leah Martyn × T J Gollan are 4 from 25 (16.0%) in the last 90 days — they combine with #6 Lebanese here.
  • Jockey Brandon Lerena is 5 from 25 at today’s meeting profile (20.0% strike, A/E 1.40) and has #5 El Centro here.
  • Trainer Jeff Dunn is 3 from 17 at today’s meeting profile (17.6% strike, A/E 1.32) and has #5 El Centro here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
1200m · 22 races (22 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)84731.8%8.3%0.53
Middle (5–9)811463.6%17.3%1.23
Wide (10+)2514.5%4%0.41

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)45940.9%20%1.07
On-pace (4–6)44418.2%9.1%0.54
Midfield (7–10)2629.1%7.7%0.83
Backmarkers (11+)200%0%0.00
Unknown73731.8%9.6%0.82

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)429.1%50%0.83
Pop ($2–5)491045.5%20.4%0.69
Mid ($5–10)47940.9%19.1%1.39
Roughie (>$10)9014.5%1.1%0.29