Beaudesert R2

13:18Ingham Races July 11 Mdn Hcp
1200mMaidenRail: True
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Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 6 July 14:09 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

Ingham Races July 11 Mdn Hcpa 1200m maiden at Beaudesert, jumping at 13:18 on ground, rail true. 9 runners engaged.

At the trip

Beaudesert has staged 22 races at 1200m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: Middle (5–9) wins the most races here — 14 of 22 (63.6% win share) — and beats its market price too (A/E 1.23).
  • Pace: Settle position 1–3 wins the most races here — 9 of 22 (40.9% win share); Settle position 4–6 underperforms its market price — A/E 0.54 (4 from 44).
  • Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 10 of 22 (45.5% win share); the value band has been Mid ($5–10) — A/E 1.39 (9 from 47).
  • Data note: settling position is unknown for 73 runners in this sample, which dilutes the pace numbers.

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions covers 18 runnings — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: read holds — Middle (5–9) again on top: A/E 1.41 (13 from 68).
  • Pace: read holds — Settle position 1–3 again on top: A/E 1.23 (8 from 33).
  • Market: read holds — Mid ($5–10) again on top: A/E 1.49 (7 from 34).

Jockeys & trainers

  • Jockey Jaden Lloyd: 21 from 123 (17.1%) in the last 90 days (7 of those in the last 30) — rides #6 Comical Belle here.
  • Jockey Kelsey Lenton: 5 from 30 (16.7%) in the last 30 days — rides #9 Miss Informed here.
  • Trainer Michael Freedman: 25 from 144 (17.4%) in the last 90 days (10 of those in the last 30) — saddles #1 Dominator here.
  • Trainer K M Schweida: 7 from 43 (16.3%) in the last 30 days — saddles #7 Panemorfos here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
1200m · 22 races (22 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)84731.8%8.3%0.53
Middle (5–9)811463.6%17.3%1.23
Wide (10+)2514.5%4%0.41

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)45940.9%20%1.07
On-pace (4–6)44418.2%9.1%0.54
Midfield (7–10)2629.1%7.7%0.83
Backmarkers (11+)200%0%0.00
Unknown73731.8%9.6%0.82

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)429.1%50%0.83
Pop ($2–5)491045.5%20.4%0.69
Mid ($5–10)47940.9%19.1%1.39
Roughie (>$10)9014.5%1.1%0.29