HoofMetricsdata · model · edge
← Murray Bridge GHTuesday 7 July 2026

Murray Bridge GH R2

13:25Thomas Farms Mdn Plate
1400mMaidenRail: +12m
StatisticsRace Analysis
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Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 6 July 14:09 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

Thomas Farms Mdn Plate — a 1400m maiden at Murray Bridge GH, jumping at 13:25 on — ground, rail +12m. 15 runners engaged.

At the trip

Murray Bridge GH has staged 45 races at 1400m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: Middle (5–9) wins the most races here — 22 of 45 (48.9% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Pace: Settle position 4–6 wins the most races here — 17 of 45 (37.8% win share); Settle position 11+ underperforms its market price — A/E 0.45 (4 from 117).
  • Market: Mid ($5–10) wins the most races here — 19 of 45 (42.2% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions (+12m ±1m) covers 10 runnings — indicative rather than conclusive.

  • Barrier draw: read holds — Middle (5–9) again on top: A/E 1.04 (6 from 50).
  • Pace: read holds — Settle position 4–6 again on top: A/E 1.29 (4 from 30).
  • Market: read holds — Mid ($5–10) again on top: A/E 0.98 (4 from 30).

Jockeys & trainers

  • Jockey Jason Holder: 9 from 59 (15.3%) in the last 30 days — rides #6 Bay Road Boy here.
  • Jockey Lauren Stojakovic is 2 from 26 at today’s meeting profile (7.7% strike, A/E 1.71) and has #17 La Petite here.
  • Trainer Grant Young is 5 from 49 at today’s meeting profile (10.2% strike, A/E 1.27) and has #14 Jinneensalhadeen here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
1400m · 45 races (45 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)1741431.1%8%0.81
Middle (5–9)2092248.9%10.5%0.95
Wide (10+)174920%5.2%0.62

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)1351328.9%9.6%0.90
On-pace (4–6)1351737.8%12.6%1.16
Midfield (7–10)1691124.4%6.5%0.65
Backmarkers (11+)11748.9%3.4%0.45
Unknown100%0%0.00

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)424.4%50%0.88
Pop ($2–5)761431.1%18.4%0.69
Mid ($5–10)1401942.2%13.6%1.01
Roughie (>$10)3371022.2%3%0.75