Thomas Farms Hcp (56) — a 1200m restricted 56 at Murray Bridge GH, jumping at 17:05 on — ground, rail +12m. 16 runners engaged.
At the trip
Murray Bridge GH has staged 53 races at 1200m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.
- Barrier draw: Middle (5–9) wins the most races here — 22 of 53 (41.5% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
- Pace: Settle position 4–6 wins the most races here — 17 of 53 (32.1% win share); the value band has been Settle position 11+ — A/E 1.73 (10 from 84).
- Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 21 of 53 (39.6% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
Rail effect
Grouping similar rail positions (+12m ±1m) covers only 6 runnings — too small to lean on.
- For the record: Middle (5–9) accounted for 4 of the 6 winners (4 from 30 runners, A/E 1.44) in that limited data — colour, not signal; the overall numbers above carry more weight.
Jockeys & trainers
- Jockey Jason Holder: 9 from 59 (15.3%) in the last 30 days — rides #10 Zenacity here.
- Jockey Stacey Metcalfe is 3 from 31 at today’s meeting profile (9.7% strike, A/E 3.08) and has #15 Vexatious Choice here.
- Trainer Ms N Irwin is 3 from 22 at today’s meeting profile (13.6% strike, A/E 2.46) and has #15 Vexatious Choice here.