Belmont Park R4

16:14Share Bets With TABtouch Bet Loop Hcp (C1)
1200mClass 1Rail: +17m
Races12345678

Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 7 July 14:08 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.

Share Bets With TABtouch Bet Loop Hcp (C1)a 1200m class 1 at Belmont Park, jumping at 16:14 on ground, rail +17m. 9 runners engaged.

At the trip

Belmont Park has staged 86 races at 1200m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: Middle (5–9) wins the most races here — 44 of 86 (50.6% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Pace: Settle position 1–3 wins the most races here — 32 of 86 (36.8% win share); Settle position 11+ underperforms its market price — A/E 0.16 (1 from 111).
  • Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 47 of 86 (54.0% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions (+17m ±1m) covers 9 runnings — indicative rather than conclusive.

  • Barrier draw: read holds — Middle (5–9) again on top: A/E 1.01 (5 from 45).
  • Pace: edge tilts to Settle position 1–3 — A/E 1.01 (3 from 27); overall it's Settle position 7–10.
  • Market: edge tilts to Pop ($2–5) — A/E 1.39 (8 from 21); overall it's Odds-on (≤$2).

Jockeys & trainers

  • Together, William Pike × G & A Williams are 19 from 55 (34.5%) in the last 90 days (7 of those in the last 30) — they combine with #4 Bookends here.
  • Together, Natasha Faithfull × D & B Pearce are 3 from 21 (14.3%) in the last 90 days — they combine with #6 Hello Veneta here.
  • Trainer Michael Grantham: 32 from 130 (24.6%) in the last 90 days (14 of those in the last 30) — saddles #2 Acquired Taste here.
  • Trainer J F Miller: 5 from 25 (20.0%) in the last 90 days — saddles #3 Ajicito here.
  • Jockey Brayden Gaerth is 7 from 82 at today’s meeting profile (8.5% strike, A/E 1.24) and has #3 Ajicito here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
1200m · 86 races (87 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)3383034.5%8.9%0.68
Middle (5–9)4094450.6%10.8%0.99
Wide (10+)1851314.9%7%0.83

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)2583236.8%12.4%0.91
On-pace (4–6)2582528.7%9.7%0.81
Midfield (7–10)3052933.3%9.5%0.92
Backmarkers (11+)11111.1%0.9%0.16

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)10910.3%90%1.48
Pop ($2–5)1774754%26.6%0.90
Mid ($5–10)1741618.4%9.2%0.69
Roughie (>$10)5711517.2%2.6%0.66

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.