HoofMetricsdata · model · edge
← Belmont ParkWednesday 8 July 2026

Belmont Park R5

16:52Reliable Asset Maintenance Hcp (C1)
1200mClass 1Rail: +17m
StatisticsRace Analysis
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Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 7 July 14:08 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.

Reliable Asset Maintenance Hcp (C1) — a 1200m class 1 at Belmont Park, jumping at 16:52 on — ground, rail +17m. 9 runners engaged.

At the trip

Belmont Park has staged 86 races at 1200m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: Middle (5–9) wins the most races here — 44 of 86 (50.6% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Pace: Settle position 1–3 wins the most races here — 32 of 86 (36.8% win share); Settle position 11+ underperforms its market price — A/E 0.16 (1 from 111).
  • Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 47 of 86 (54.0% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions (+17m ±1m) covers 9 runnings — indicative rather than conclusive.

  • Barrier draw: read holds — Middle (5–9) again on top: A/E 1.01 (5 from 45).
  • Pace: edge tilts to Settle position 1–3 — A/E 1.01 (3 from 27); overall it's Settle position 7–10.
  • Market: edge tilts to Pop ($2–5) — A/E 1.39 (8 from 21); overall it's Odds-on (≤$2).

Jockeys & trainers

  • Together, Patrick Carbery × Mitchell Pateman are 5 from 19 (26.3%) in the last 90 days — they combine with #2 Supido Express here.
  • Jockey Lucy F Fiore: 9 from 56 (16.1%) in the last 30 days — rides #3 Articole here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
1200m · 86 races (87 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)3383034.5%8.9%0.68
Middle (5–9)4094450.6%10.8%0.99
Wide (10+)1851314.9%7%0.83

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)2583236.8%12.4%0.91
On-pace (4–6)2582528.7%9.7%0.81
Midfield (7–10)3052933.3%9.5%0.92
Backmarkers (11+)11111.1%0.9%0.16

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)10910.3%90%1.48
Pop ($2–5)1774754%26.6%0.90
Mid ($5–10)1741618.4%9.2%0.69
Roughie (>$10)5711517.2%2.6%0.66

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.