Canberra Acton R5

14:56John McGrath Auto Group Hcp (C2)
1280mClass 2Rail: True
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Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 7 July 14:08 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.

John McGrath Auto Group Hcp (C2)a 1280m class 2 at Canberra Acton, jumping at 14:56 on ground, rail true. 11 runners engaged.

At the trip

Canberra Acton has staged 23 races at 1280m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: Inside (1–4) wins the most races here — 12 of 23 (52.2% win share); Middle (5–9) underperforms its market price — A/E 0.46 (6 from 98).
  • Pace: Settle position 4–6 wins the most races here — 7 of 23 (30.4% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 11 of 23 (47.8% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Data note: settling position is unknown for 64 runners in this sample, which dilutes the pace numbers.

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions covers 23 runnings — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: read holds — Inside (1–4) again on top: A/E 1.18 (12 from 85).
  • Pace: read holds — Settle position 4–6 again on top: A/E 1.10 (7 from 51).
  • Market: read holds — Mid ($5–10) again on top: A/E 0.92 (6 from 50).

Jockeys & trainers

  • Together, Pierre Boudvillain × Fabio Martino are 3 from 4 (75.0%) in the last 90 days — they combine with #8 Olivia Mia here.
  • Jockey Damon Budler: 15 from 82 (18.3%) in the last 90 days — rides #3 Midnight Moose here.
  • Trainer Doug Gorrel: 6 from 25 (24.0%) in the last 30 days — saddles #11 Lost Ya Sock here.
  • Jockey Shaun Guymer is 6 from 28 at today’s meeting profile (21.4% strike, A/E 1.85) and has #6 London Boy here.
  • Jockey Sairyn Fawke is 2 from 18 at today’s meeting profile (11.1% strike, A/E 1.47) and has #2 She Conquers here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
1280m · 23 races (23 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)851252.2%14.1%1.18
Middle (5–9)98626.1%6.1%0.46
Wide (10+)49521.7%10.2%1.05

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)51626.1%11.8%0.66
On-pace (4–6)51730.4%13.7%1.10
Midfield (7–10)57417.4%7%0.80
Backmarkers (11+)900%0%0.00
Unknown64626.1%9.4%0.82

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)628.7%33.3%0.55
Pop ($2–5)431147.8%25.6%0.86
Mid ($5–10)50626.1%12%0.92
Roughie (>$10)133417.4%3%0.78

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.