Fannie Bay R6

17:37Rydges Palmerston Cup (76)
1600mRestricted 76Rail: True
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Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 7 July 14:08 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.

Rydges Palmerston Cup (76)a 1600m restricted 76 at Fannie Bay, jumping at 17:37 on ground, rail true. 8 runners engaged.

At the trip

Fannie Bay has staged 43 races at 1600m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: Inside (1–4) wins the most races here — 24 of 43 (55.8% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Pace: no workable sample in this category.
  • Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 27 of 43 (62.8% win share); Mid ($5–10) underperforms its market price — A/E 0.49 (7 from 104).
  • Data note: settling position is unknown for 360 runners in this sample, which dilutes the pace numbers.

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions covers 41 runnings — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: edge tilts to Middle (5–9) — A/E 0.85 (17 from 157); overall it's Inside (1–4).
  • Pace: too little data within this cut to read.
  • Market: read holds — Pop ($2–5) again on top: A/E 1.06 (26 from 88).

Jockeys & trainers

  • Together, Hannah Le Blanc × Tommy Logan are 5 from 22 (22.7%) in the last 90 days — they combine with #7 King Akeed here.
  • Jockey Jason Lyon: 16 from 91 (17.6%) in the last 90 days — rides #5 Rock Revolution here.
  • Jockey Jarrod Todd: 13 from 77 (16.9%) in the last 90 days (5 of those in the last 30) — rides #1 Ichiban here.
  • Trainer Chloe Baxter: 7 from 33 (21.2%) in the last 90 days — saddles #4 Vanguard Legend, #5 Rock Revolution here.
  • Trainer G Clarke: 10 from 63 (15.9%) in the last 90 days (5 of those in the last 30) — saddles #1 Ichiban here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
1600m · 43 races (43 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)1672455.8%14.4%0.84
Middle (5–9)1651739.5%10.3%0.80
Wide (10+)3124.7%6.5%0.67

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)312.3%33.3%2.67
Unknown3604297.7%11.7%0.80

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)849.3%50%0.84
Pop ($2–5)932762.8%29%1.04
Mid ($5–10)104716.3%6.7%0.49
Roughie (>$10)158511.6%3.2%0.64

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.