HoofMetricsdata · model · edge
← MorphettvilleWednesday 8 July 2026

Morphettville R2

13:15Thomas Farms Mdn Plate
1600mMaidenRail: +6m
StatisticsRace Analysis
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Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 7 July 14:08 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.

Thomas Farms Mdn Plate — a 1600m maiden at Morphettville, jumping at 13:15 on — ground, rail +6m. 15 runners engaged.

At the trip

Morphettville has staged 43 races at 1600m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: Middle (5–9) wins the most races here — 22 of 43 (51.2% win share); Inside (1–4) underperforms its market price — A/E 0.53 (12 from 167).
  • Pace: Settle position 1–3 wins the most races here — 16 of 43 (37.2% win share); Settle position 11+ underperforms its market price — A/E 0.51 (3 from 84).
  • Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 16 of 43 (37.2% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions (+6m ±1m) covers 10 runnings — indicative rather than conclusive.

  • Barrier draw: read holds — Middle (5–9) again on top: A/E 1.28 (6 from 38).
  • Pace: read holds — Settle position 1–3 again on top: A/E 0.89 (4 from 30).
  • Market: read holds — Roughie (>$10) again on top: A/E 1.22 (3 from 57).

Jockeys & trainers

  • Together, Tala Hutchinson × D Clarken & O Macgillivray are 9 from 24 (37.5%) in the last 90 days — they combine with #14 Contrary here.
  • Trainer Ms Jessica Tzaferis is 4 from 18 at today’s meeting profile (22.2% strike, A/E 3.09) and has #7 Friend In Me here.
  • Trainer Chris Bieg is 10 from 79 at today’s meeting profile (12.7% strike, A/E 1.43) and has #6 Sweet Kick here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
1600m · 43 races (43 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)1671227.9%7.2%0.53
Middle (5–9)1892251.2%11.6%1.11
Wide (10+)122920.9%7.4%0.95

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)1291637.2%12.4%0.93
On-pace (4–6)1261227.9%9.5%0.80
Midfield (7–10)1391227.9%8.6%0.87
Backmarkers (11+)8437%3.6%0.51

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)637%50%0.89
Pop ($2–5)821637.2%19.5%0.71
Mid ($5–10)1001227.9%12%0.88
Roughie (>$10)2901227.9%4.1%0.97

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.