HoofMetricsdata · model · edge
← MorphettvilleWednesday 8 July 2026

Morphettville R5

15:00Sportsbet Fast Form Hcp (C1)
1200mClass 1Rail: +6m
StatisticsRace Analysis
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Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 7 July 14:08 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.

Sportsbet Fast Form Hcp (C1) — a 1200m class 1 at Morphettville, jumping at 15:00 on — ground, rail +6m. 14 runners engaged.

At the trip

Morphettville has staged 62 races at 1200m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: Inside (1–4) wins the most races here — 22 of 62 (35.5% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Pace: Settle position 1–3 wins the most races here — 29 of 62 (46.8% win share) — and beats its market price too (A/E 1.26).
  • Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 22 of 62 (35.5% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions (+6m ±1m) covers 15 runnings — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: read holds — Wide (10+) again on top: A/E 0.98 (5 from 51).
  • Pace: read holds — Settle position 1–3 again on top: A/E 1.79 (9 from 45).
  • Market: read holds — Mid ($5–10) again on top: A/E 1.04 (5 from 34).

Jockeys & trainers

  • Trainer Chris Bieg is 10 from 79 at today’s meeting profile (12.7% strike, A/E 1.43) and has #2 Precipice, #9 Caer Ibormeith here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
1200m · 62 races (62 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)2362235.5%9.3%0.90
Middle (5–9)2912032.3%6.9%0.69
Wide (10+)2112032.3%9.5%0.92

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)1862946.8%15.6%1.26
On-pace (4–6)1861422.6%7.5%0.66
Midfield (7–10)2301422.6%6.1%0.62
Backmarkers (11+)13658.1%3.7%0.59

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)758.1%71.4%1.31
Pop ($2–5)1052235.5%21%0.76
Mid ($5–10)1692032.3%11.8%0.89
Roughie (>$10)4571524.2%3.3%0.75

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.