The Junction Mdn Plate — a 1050m maiden at Morphettville, jumping at 13:50 on — ground, rail +6m. 17 runners engaged.
At the trip
Morphettville has staged 50 races at 1050m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.
- Barrier draw: Inside (1–4) wins the most races here — 24 of 50 (47.1% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
- Pace: Settle position 4–6 wins the most races here — 23 of 50 (45.1% win share); Settle position 7–10 underperforms its market price — A/E 0.51 (7 from 155).
- Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 25 of 50 (49.0% win share); Mid ($5–10) underperforms its market price — A/E 0.38 (5 from 101).
Rail effect
Grouping similar rail positions (+6m ±1m) covers 15 runnings — a sample worth weighting.
- Barrier draw: read holds — Wide (10+) again on top: A/E 1.91 (6 from 33).
- Pace: edge tilts to Settle position 11+ — A/E 3.05 (3 from 16); overall it's Settle position 4–6.
- Market: edge tilts to Odds-on (≤$2) — A/E 1.35 (4 from 5); overall it's Roughie (>$10).
Jockeys & trainers
- Jockey Dylan Caboche is 2 from 19 at today’s meeting profile (10.5% strike, A/E 5.00) and has #6 Esticon here.
- Trainer Ms N Irwin is 2 from 23 at today’s meeting profile (8.7% strike, A/E 1.30) and has #4 Mr Vexatious here.