HoofMetricsdata · model · edge
← GosfordThursday 9 July 2026

Gosford R4

14:45Brown Commercial Building Provincial Mdn Hcp
1000mMaidenRail: +4m
StatisticsRace Analysis
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Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 8 July 14:09 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.

Brown Commercial Building Provincial Mdn Hcp — a 1000m maiden at Gosford, jumping at 14:45 on — ground, rail +4m. 11 runners engaged.

At the trip

Gosford has staged 31 races at 1000m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: Inside (1–4) wins the most races here — 16 of 31 (51.6% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Pace: Settle position 1–3 wins the most races here — 21 of 31 (67.7% win share) — and beats its market price too (A/E 1.20).
  • Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 17 of 31 (54.8% win share); Roughie (>$10) underperforms its market price — A/E 0.35 (2 from 140).

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions (+4m ±1m) covers only 5 runnings — too small to lean on.

  • For the record: Settle position 1–3 accounted for 4 of the 5 winners (4 from 15 runners, A/E 1.19) in that limited data — colour, not signal; the overall numbers above carry more weight.

Jockeys & trainers

  • Jockey L P Beuzelin: 5 from 32 (15.6%) in the last 90 days — rides #1 Gold Earth here.
  • Jockey Siena Grima: 11 from 68 (16.2%) in the last 30 days — rides #8 Sammy The Bull here.
  • Trainer Nacim Dilmi: 12 from 72 (16.7%) in the last 90 days — saddles #10 Warm Front here.
  • Trainer Nathan Doyle: 15 from 99 (15.2%) in the last 90 days — saddles #4 Ateba here.
  • Jockey Sam Clipperton is 3 from 10 at today’s meeting profile (30.0% strike, A/E 1.47) and has #4 Ateba here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
1000m · 31 races (31 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)1181651.6%13.6%0.82
Middle (5–9)1281445.2%10.9%0.85
Wide (10+)1713.2%5.9%0.71

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)902167.7%23.3%1.20
On-pace (4–6)90619.4%6.7%0.46
Midfield (7–10)6639.7%4.5%0.55
Backmarkers (11+)600%0%0.00
Unknown1113.2%9.1%0.81

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)9825.8%88.9%1.53
Pop ($2–5)611754.8%27.9%0.89
Mid ($5–10)53412.9%7.5%0.55
Roughie (>$10)14026.5%1.4%0.35

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.