Gosford R5

15:20The Settlers Tavern Mdn Plate
1100mMaidenRail: +4m
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Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 8 July 14:09 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.

The Settlers Tavern Mdn Platea 1100m maiden at Gosford, jumping at 15:20 on ground, rail +4m. 12 runners engaged.

At the trip

Gosford has staged 33 races at 1100m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: Inside (1–4) wins the most races here — 18 of 33 (54.5% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Pace: Settle position 1–3 wins the most races here — 21 of 33 (63.6% win share); Settle position 7–10 underperforms its market price — A/E 0.34 (2 from 64).
  • Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 19 of 33 (57.6% win share); Roughie (>$10) underperforms its market price — A/E 0.36 (2 from 126).

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions (+4m ±1m) covers only 1 runnings — too small to lean on.

  • For the record: nothing in that limited data stands out; the overall numbers above carry the read.

Jockeys & trainers

  • Together, Siena Grima × C J Waller are 16 from 76 (21.1%) in the last 90 days (9 of those in the last 30) — they combine with #1 Ancestral here.
  • Together, Tyler Schiller × C J Waller are 6 from 32 (18.8%) in the last 90 days — they combine with #8 Wiltshire Lass here.
  • Jockey Keagan Latham: 23 from 134 (17.2%) in the last 90 days (9 of those in the last 30) — rides #9 Written Redemption here.
  • Trainer Michael Freedman: 24 from 144 (16.7%) in the last 90 days (9 of those in the last 30) — saddles #11 Stay Spending here.
  • Trainer G Ryan & S Alexiou: 6 from 36 (16.7%) in the last 30 days — saddles #7 Rising Revolution, #13 Ask Di here.
  • Jockey Sam Clipperton is 3 from 10 at today’s meeting profile (30.0% strike, A/E 1.47) and has #7 Rising Revolution here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
1100m · 33 races (33 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)1271854.5%14.2%0.95
Middle (5–9)1251545.5%12%0.76
Wide (10+)1100%0%0.00

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)992163.6%21.2%0.95
On-pace (4–6)971030.3%10.3%0.87
Midfield (7–10)6426.1%3.1%0.34
Backmarkers (11+)300%0%0.00

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)8515.2%62.5%1.05
Pop ($2–5)721957.6%26.4%0.88
Mid ($5–10)57721.2%12.3%0.89
Roughie (>$10)12626.1%1.6%0.36

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.