HoofMetricsdata · model · edge
← SaleThursday 9 July 2026

Sale R2

13:30Ladbrokes Big Bets Copy Now Mdn Plate
1013mMaidenRail: Out 8m Entire Circuit
StatisticsRace Analysis
Races12345678

Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 8 July 14:09 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.

Ladbrokes Big Bets Copy Now Mdn Plate — a 1013m maiden at Sale, jumping at 13:30 on — ground, rail out 8m entire circuit. 12 runners engaged.

At the trip

Sale has staged 24 races at 1013m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: Inside (1–4) wins the most races here — 13 of 24 (54.2% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Pace: Settle position 4–6 wins the most races here — 13 of 24 (54.2% win share) — and beats its market price too (A/E 1.27).
  • Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 15 of 24 (62.5% win share); Roughie (>$10) underperforms its market price — A/E 0.24 (1 from 102).

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions (+8m ±1m) covers only 5 runnings — too small to lean on.

  • For the record: Settle position 4–6 accounted for 4 of the 5 winners (4 from 15 runners, A/E 1.75) in that limited data — colour, not signal; the overall numbers above carry more weight.

Jockeys & trainers

  • Trainer Alexander Rae: 13 from 42 (31.0%) in the last 90 days (5 of those in the last 30) — saddles #9 Canny Miss here.
  • Jockey Adam Mc Cabe is 2 from 21 at today’s meeting profile (9.5% strike, A/E 1.84) and has #1 Annule here.
  • Jockey Ruby Lamont is 3 from 28 at today’s meeting profile (10.7% strike, A/E 1.80) and has #11 La Velocita here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
1013m · 24 races (24 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)931354.2%14%0.89
Middle (5–9)88937.5%10.2%0.77
Wide (10+)2228.3%9.1%1.01

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)69833.3%11.6%0.68
On-pace (4–6)681354.2%19.1%1.27
Midfield (7–10)4628.3%4.3%0.50
Backmarkers (11+)1100%0%0.00
Unknown914.2%11.1%0.70

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)8416.7%50%0.86
Pop ($2–5)451562.5%33.3%1.18
Mid ($5–10)48416.7%8.3%0.59
Roughie (>$10)10214.2%1%0.24

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.