HoofMetricsdata · model · edge
← CarnarvonFriday 10 July 2026

Carnarvon R3

17:45Mallard Contracting (Bm64+)
1000mBenchMark 64+Rail: True
Race AnalysisStatistics
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Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 9 July 14:08 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.

Mallard Contracting (Bm64+) — a 1000m benchmark 64+ at Carnarvon, jumping at 17:45 on — ground, rail true. 11 runners engaged.

At the trip

Carnarvon has staged 20 races at 1000m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: Inside (1–4) wins the most races here — 12 of 20 (60.0% win share); Middle (5–9) underperforms its market price — A/E 0.53 (6 from 86).
  • Pace: Settle position 1–3 wins the most races here — 12 of 20 (60.0% win share) — and beats its market price too (A/E 1.26).
  • Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 11 of 20 (55.0% win share); Roughie (>$10) underperforms its market price — A/E 0.22 (1 from 93).

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions covers 20 runnings — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: read holds — Inside (1–4) again on top: A/E 1.10 (12 from 78).
  • Pace: read holds — Settle position 1–3 again on top: A/E 1.26 (12 from 60).
  • Market: read holds — Pop ($2–5) again on top: A/E 0.93 (11 from 43).

Jockeys & trainers

  • Trainer Jacquelyn Scott is 7 from 68 at today’s meeting profile (10.3% strike, A/E 1.45) and has #10 Passion Prince here.
  • Jockey Madi Derrick is 4 from 24 at today’s meeting profile (16.7% strike, A/E 1.24) and has #2 Kote here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
1000m · 20 races (20 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)781260%15.4%1.10
Middle (5–9)86630%7%0.53
Wide (10+)24210%8.3%0.90

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)601260%20%1.26
On-pace (4–6)60735%11.7%0.72
Midfield (7–10)5615%1.8%0.21
Backmarkers (11+)1100%0%0.00
Unknown100%0%0.00

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)3210%66.7%1.16
Pop ($2–5)431155%25.6%0.93
Mid ($5–10)49630%12.2%0.93
Roughie (>$10)9315%1.1%0.22

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.