HoofMetricsdata · model · edge
← CarnarvonFriday 10 July 2026

Carnarvon R5

18:45Carnarvon Cleaners (Bm56+)
1200mBenchMark 56+Rail: True
Race AnalysisStatistics
Races123456

Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 9 July 14:08 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.

Carnarvon Cleaners (Bm56+) — a 1200m benchmark 56+ at Carnarvon, jumping at 18:45 on — ground, rail true. 14 runners engaged.

At the trip

Carnarvon has staged 28 races at 1200m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: Middle (5–9) wins the most races here — 16 of 28 (57.1% win share); Wide (10+) underperforms its market price — A/E 0.32 (1 from 35).
  • Pace: Settle position 1–3 wins the most races here — 15 of 28 (53.6% win share); Settle position 7–10 underperforms its market price — A/E 0.42 (4 from 93).
  • Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 16 of 28 (57.1% win share); Roughie (>$10) underperforms its market price — A/E 0.44 (3 from 150).

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions covers 28 runnings — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: read holds — Middle (5–9) again on top: A/E 0.89 (16 from 129).
  • Pace: read holds — Settle position 1–3 again on top: A/E 1.11 (15 from 84).
  • Market: read holds — Pop ($2–5) again on top: A/E 0.85 (16 from 66).

Jockeys & trainers

  • Trainer Jacquelyn Scott is 7 from 68 at today’s meeting profile (10.3% strike, A/E 1.45) and has #8 So Schmick, #12 She Is All Magic here.
  • Jockey Natika Riordan is 9 from 47 at today’s meeting profile (19.1% strike, A/E 1.36) and has #5 Casino Royale here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
1200m · 28 races (28 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)1101139.3%10%0.83
Middle (5–9)1291657.1%12.4%0.89
Wide (10+)3513.6%2.9%0.32

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)841553.6%17.9%1.11
On-pace (4–6)82828.6%9.8%0.86
Midfield (7–10)93414.3%4.3%0.42
Backmarkers (11+)1413.6%7.1%0.47
Unknown100%0%0.00

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)3310.7%100%1.84
Pop ($2–5)661657.1%24.2%0.85
Mid ($5–10)55621.4%10.9%0.83
Roughie (>$10)150310.7%2%0.44

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.