HoofMetricsdata · model · edge
← CarnarvonFriday 10 July 2026

Carnarvon R4

18:15Northern Aspect Constructions Hcp (C3)
1400mClass 3Rail: True
Race AnalysisStatistics
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Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 9 July 14:08 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.

Northern Aspect Constructions Hcp (C3) — a 1400m class 3 at Carnarvon, jumping at 18:15 on — ground, rail true. 14 runners engaged.

At the trip

Carnarvon has staged 23 races at 1400m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: Middle (5–9) wins the most races here — 10 of 23 (43.5% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Pace: Settle position 1–3 wins the most races here — 10 of 23 (43.5% win share); Settle position 7–10 underperforms its market price — A/E 0.59 (4 from 70).
  • Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 10 of 23 (43.5% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions covers 23 runnings — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: read holds — Wide (10+) again on top: A/E 1.10 (4 from 30).
  • Pace: read holds — Settle position 4–6 again on top: A/E 0.94 (8 from 67).
  • Market: edge tilts to Odds-on (≤$2) — A/E 1.07 (3 from 5); overall it's Pop ($2–5).

Jockeys & trainers

  • Trainer Jacquelyn Scott is 7 from 68 at today’s meeting profile (10.3% strike, A/E 1.45) and has #1 Cheeky Charlotte here.
  • Jockey Natika Riordan is 9 from 47 at today’s meeting profile (19.1% strike, A/E 1.36) and has #6 Le Troy here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
1400m · 23 races (23 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)89939.1%10.1%0.79
Middle (5–9)1011043.5%9.9%0.79
Wide (10+)30417.4%13.3%1.10

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)691043.5%14.5%0.88
On-pace (4–6)67834.8%11.9%0.94
Midfield (7–10)70417.4%5.7%0.59
Backmarkers (11+)1414.3%7.1%0.90

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)5313%60%1.07
Pop ($2–5)441043.5%22.7%0.82
Mid ($5–10)56626.1%10.7%0.79
Roughie (>$10)115417.4%3.5%0.78

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.