HoofMetricsdata · model · edge
← GattonFriday 10 July 2026

Gatton R1

11:45McNeil Farms Mdn Plate
1600mMaidenRail: True
Race AnalysisStatistics
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Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 9 July 14:08 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.

McNeil Farms Mdn Plate — a 1600m maiden at Gatton, jumping at 11:45 on — ground, rail true. 20 runners engaged.

At the trip

Gatton has staged 17 races at 1600m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: Middle (5–9) wins the most races here — 10 of 17 (58.8% win share); Wide (10+) underperforms its market price — A/E 0.43 (1 from 21).
  • Pace: Settle position 4–6 wins the most races here — 7 of 17 (41.2% win share) — and beats its market price too (A/E 1.37).
  • Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 10 of 17 (58.8% win share); Roughie (>$10) underperforms its market price — A/E 0.27 (1 from 80).
  • Data note: settling position is unknown for 41 runners in this sample, which dilutes the pace numbers.

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions covers 12 runnings — indicative rather than conclusive.

  • Barrier draw: read holds — Middle (5–9) again on top: A/E 1.03 (7 from 56).
  • Pace: read holds — Settle position 4–6 again on top: A/E 1.60 (5 from 24).
  • Market: read holds — Pop ($2–5) again on top: A/E 1.21 (8 from 25).

Jockeys & trainers

  • Jockey Jess Emmerson: 14 from 68 (20.6%) in the last 90 days (5 of those in the last 30) — rides #8 Talleyrand here.
  • Trainer J W Healy: 12 from 76 (15.8%) in the last 90 days (5 of those in the last 30) — saddles #6 Ablesheeba here.
  • Trainer John Thomas is 3 from 15 at today’s meeting profile (20.0% strike, A/E 3.16) and has #14 Mistemba here.
  • Trainer R G Lipp is 5 from 22 at today’s meeting profile (22.7% strike, A/E 1.46) and has #8 Talleyrand here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
1600m · 17 races (17 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)68635.3%8.8%0.63
Middle (5–9)771058.8%13%1.15
Wide (10+)2115.9%4.8%0.43

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)39317.6%7.7%0.49
On-pace (4–6)39741.2%17.9%1.37
Midfield (7–10)40317.6%7.5%0.76
Backmarkers (11+)700%0%0.00
Unknown41423.5%9.8%0.82

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)100%0%0.00
Pop ($2–5)331058.8%30.3%1.06
Mid ($5–10)52635.3%11.5%0.86
Roughie (>$10)8015.9%1.2%0.27

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.