HoofMetricsdata · model · edge
← GattonFriday 10 July 2026

Gatton R2

12:23Barrier Reef Pools Mdn Plate
860mMaidenRail: True
Race AnalysisStatistics
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Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 9 July 14:08 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.

Barrier Reef Pools Mdn Plate — a 860m maiden at Gatton, jumping at 12:23 on — ground, rail true. 16 runners engaged.

At the trip

Gatton has staged 25 races at 860m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: Inside (1–4) wins the most races here — 19 of 25 (76.0% win share); Wide (10+) underperforms its market price — A/E 0.00 (0 from 26).
  • Pace: Settle position 1–3 wins the most races here — 19 of 25 (76.0% win share); Settle position 7–10 underperforms its market price — A/E 0.00 (0 from 61).
  • Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 12 of 25 (48.0% win share); Mid ($5–10) underperforms its market price — A/E 0.37 (2 from 42).

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions covers 16 runnings — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: edge tilts to Middle (5–9) — A/E 1.04 (6 from 56); overall it's Inside (1–4).
  • Pace: read holds — Settle position 1–3 again on top: A/E 1.19 (11 from 39).
  • Market: edge tilts to Odds-on (≤$2) — A/E 1.02 (6 from 9); overall it's Pop ($2–5).

Jockeys & trainers

  • Jockey Tahlia Fenlon is 4 from 11 at today’s meeting profile (36.4% strike, A/E 1.51) and has #5 Bottles Of Shells here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
860m · 25 races (25 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)941976%20.2%1.03
Middle (5–9)97624%6.2%0.60
Wide (10+)2600%0%0.00

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)661976%28.8%1.17
On-pace (4–6)65312%4.6%0.45
Midfield (7–10)6100%0%0.00
Unknown25312%12%0.85

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)12728%58.3%0.91
Pop ($2–5)371248%32.4%1.03
Mid ($5–10)4228%4.8%0.37
Roughie (>$10)126416%3.2%0.74

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.