Gatton R6

14:47Nolan's Transport (Bm65)
1100mBenchmark 65Rail: True
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Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 9 July 14:08 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.

Nolan's Transport (Bm65)a 1100m benchmark 65 at Gatton, jumping at 14:47 on ground, rail true. 10 runners engaged.

At the trip

Gatton has staged 38 races at 1100m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: Inside (1–4) wins the most races here — 21 of 38 (53.8% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Pace: Settle position 1–3 wins the most races here — 18 of 38 (46.2% win share) — and beats its market price too (A/E 1.33).
  • Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 21 of 38 (53.8% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Data note: settling position is unknown for 109 runners in this sample, which dilutes the pace numbers.

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions covers 27 runnings — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: read holds — Wide (10+) again on top: A/E 0.92 (4 from 59).
  • Pace: read holds — Settle position 1–3 again on top: A/E 1.16 (10 from 51).
  • Market: read holds — Pop ($2–5) again on top: A/E 0.91 (13 from 49).

Jockeys & trainers

  • Jockey Jess Emmerson: 14 from 68 (20.6%) in the last 90 days (5 of those in the last 30) — rides #2 Inatick here.
  • Jockey Harrison Shaw: 7 from 33 (21.2%) in the last 90 days (5 of those in the last 30) — rides #12 Clearly George here.
  • Trainer Ms M Brosnan is 2 from 10 at today’s meeting profile (20.0% strike, A/E 1.52) and has #6 Sukhbir here.
  • Jockey Tahlia Fenlon is 4 from 11 at today’s meeting profile (36.4% strike, A/E 1.51) and has #4 Apollo Ten here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
1100m · 38 races (39 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)1432153.8%14.7%0.90
Middle (5–9)1631230.8%7.4%0.70
Wide (10+)84615.4%7.1%0.98

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)841846.2%21.4%1.33
On-pace (4–6)83923.1%10.8%0.74
Midfield (7–10)9125.1%2.2%0.27
Backmarkers (11+)2300%0%0.00
Unknown1091025.6%9.2%0.81

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)8410.3%50%0.84
Pop ($2–5)752153.8%28%0.97
Mid ($5–10)80717.9%8.8%0.66
Roughie (>$10)227717.9%3.1%0.72

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.