Donald R5

15:16Donald Motor Lodge Hcp (56)
1628mRestricted 56Rail: Out 3m Entire Circuit
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Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 10 July 14:13 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.

Donald Motor Lodge Hcp (56)a 1628m restricted 56 at Donald, jumping at 15:16 on ground, rail out 3m entire circuit. 11 runners engaged.

At the trip

Donald has staged 18 races at 1628m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: Middle (5–9) wins the most races here — 10 of 18 (55.6% win share); Inside (1–4) underperforms its market price — A/E 0.52 (4 from 64).
  • Pace: Settle position 7–10 wins the most races here — 6 of 18 (33.3% win share); the value band has been Settle position 11+ — A/E 2.00 (3 from 28).
  • Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 7 of 18 (38.9% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions (+3m ±1m) covers only 3 runnings — too small to lean on.

  • For the record: Middle (5–9) accounted for 3 of the 3 winners (3 from 9 runners, A/E 1.91) in that limited data — colour, not signal; the overall numbers above carry more weight.

Jockeys & trainers

  • Jockey Caitlin Hollowood: 7 from 27 (25.9%) in the last 30 days — rides #10 Frostration here.
  • Jockey Dean Yendall: 6 from 36 (16.7%) in the last 30 days — rides #4 Carnival Riches here.
  • Jockey Alana Kelly is 2 from 22 at today’s meeting profile (9.1% strike, A/E 1.28) and has #11 Final Quarter here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
1628m · 18 races (18 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)64422.2%6.2%0.52
Middle (5–9)831055.6%12%1.05
Wide (10+)59422.2%6.8%0.81

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)54422.2%7.4%0.58
On-pace (4–6)54527.8%9.3%0.63
Midfield (7–10)70633.3%8.6%1.02
Backmarkers (11+)28316.7%10.7%2.00

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)5316.7%60%1.14
Pop ($2–5)34738.9%20.6%0.75
Mid ($5–10)41422.2%9.8%0.73
Roughie (>$10)126422.2%3.2%0.86

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.