Donald R7

16:31Donald Steel Metaland Hcp (56)
1206mRestricted 56Rail: Out 3m Entire Circuit
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Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 10 July 14:13 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.

Donald Steel Metaland Hcp (56)a 1206m restricted 56 at Donald, jumping at 16:31 on ground, rail out 3m entire circuit. 17 runners engaged.

At the trip

Donald has staged 12 races at 1206m in our sample — indicative rather than conclusive.

  • Barrier draw: Middle (5–9) wins the most races here — 6 of 12 (50.0% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Pace: Settle position 1–3 wins the most races here — 8 of 12 (66.7% win share) — and beats its market price too (A/E 1.30).
  • Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 7 of 12 (58.3% win share); Roughie (>$10) underperforms its market price — A/E 0.34 (1 from 62).

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions (+3m ±1m) covers only 1 runnings — too small to lean on.

  • For the record: nothing in that limited data stands out; the overall numbers above carry the read.

Jockeys & trainers

  • Jockey Caitlin Hollowood: 7 from 27 (25.9%) in the last 30 days — rides #11 Miss Himalaya here.
  • Jockey Olivia East: 12 from 68 (17.6%) in the last 90 days — rides #7 Please Me Do here.
  • Trainer Archie Alexander: 10 from 63 (15.9%) in the last 90 days — saddles #5 Tuxedo Miss here.
  • Trainer Jamie Edwards: 12 from 77 (15.6%) in the last 90 days — saddles #1 Colt Forty Five here.
  • Trainer Andrew Bobbin is 4 from 24 at today’s meeting profile (16.7% strike, A/E 1.61) and has #6 Vegas Dancer here.
  • Jockey Alana Kelly is 2 from 22 at today’s meeting profile (9.1% strike, A/E 1.28) and has #9 Alesha Lily here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
1206m · 12 races (12 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)44433.3%9.1%0.65
Middle (5–9)52650%11.5%1.03
Wide (10+)23216.7%8.7%0.73

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)36866.7%22.2%1.30
On-pace (4–6)36325%8.3%0.69
Midfield (7–10)4018.3%2.5%0.27
Backmarkers (11+)700%0%0.00

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)200%0%0.00
Pop ($2–5)26758.3%26.9%1.07
Mid ($5–10)29433.3%13.8%0.99
Roughie (>$10)6218.3%1.6%0.34

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.