Fannie Bay R2

14:22AFA Insurance Brokers Mdn Plate
1200mMaidenRail: True
Races123456

Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 10 July 14:13 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.

AFA Insurance Brokers Mdn Platea 1200m maiden at Fannie Bay, jumping at 14:22 on ground, rail true. 14 runners engaged.

At the trip

Fannie Bay has staged 68 races at 1200m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: Inside (1–4) wins the most races here — 37 of 68 (54.4% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Pace: no workable sample in this category.
  • Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 33 of 68 (48.5% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Data note: settling position is unknown for 525 runners in this sample, which dilutes the pace numbers.

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions covers 67 runnings — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: read holds — Middle (5–9) again on top: A/E 0.91 (27 from 219).
  • Pace: too little data within this cut to read.
  • Market: read holds — Mid ($5–10) again on top: A/E 0.94 (20 from 156).

Jockeys & trainers

  • Together, Jarrod Todd × G Clarke are 8 from 42 (19.0%) in the last 90 days — they combine with #6 Pafitis here.
  • Jockey Deborah Barton: 10 from 50 (20.0%) in the last 90 days — rides #8 One Last Promise here.
  • Jockey Jason Lyon: 16 from 96 (16.7%) in the last 90 days — rides #1 Dynasty Reward here.
  • Trainer Ms K Petrick: 19 from 126 (15.1%) in the last 90 days — saddles #3 Mapleton Hill here.
  • Trainer K J Lamprecht is 9 from 44 at today’s meeting profile (20.5% strike, A/E 1.33) and has #1 Dynasty Reward here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
1200m · 68 races (68 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)2663754.4%13.9%0.77
Middle (5–9)2242841.2%12.5%0.93
Wide (10+)3534.4%8.6%0.69

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Unknown52568100%13%0.82

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)15811.8%53.3%0.87
Pop ($2–5)1413348.5%23.4%0.81
Mid ($5–10)1592029.4%12.6%0.92
Roughie (>$10)210710.3%3.3%0.63

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.