Saddlery Warehouse Cambridge & Tauranga Mdn — a 2100m maiden at Tauranga, jumping at 10:49 on — ground, rail out 10m. 6 runners engaged.
At the trip
Tauranga has staged 18 races at 2100m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.
- Barrier draw: Inside (1–4) wins the most races here — 14 of 18 (77.8% win share) — and beats its market price too (A/E 1.42).
- Pace: Settle position 1–3 and Settle position 7–10 win the most races here — 2 of 18 each (11.1% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
- Market: Pop ($2–5) and Mid ($5–10) win the most races here — 6 of 18 each (33.3% win share); Roughie (>$10) underperforms its market price — A/E 0.60 (3 from 95).
- Data note: settling position is unknown for 126 runners in this sample, which dilutes the pace numbers.
Rail effect
Grouping similar rail positions (+10m ±1m) covers only 3 runnings — too small to lean on.
- For the record: Roughie (>$10) accounted for 2 of the 3 winners (2 from 17 runners, A/E 2.14) in that limited data — colour, not signal; the overall numbers above carry more weight.
Jockeys & trainers
- Jockey Craig Grylls: 23 from 122 (18.9%) in the last 90 days (6 of those in the last 30) — rides #2 Asvakan here.
- Trainer Ms D Logan is 4 from 17 at today’s meeting profile (23.5% strike, A/E 2.67) and has #2 Asvakan, #6 Socotra here.