Tauranga R6

13:51Waikato Farriers Association Hcp (60)
1600mRestricted 60Rail: Out 10m
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Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 11 July 14:09 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.

Waikato Farriers Association Hcp (60)a 1600m restricted 60 at Tauranga, jumping at 13:51 on ground, rail out 10m. 9 runners engaged.

At the trip

Tauranga has staged 11 races at 1600m in our sample — indicative rather than conclusive.

  • Barrier draw: Middle (5–9) wins the most races here — 6 of 11 (54.5% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Pace: no workable sample in this category.
  • Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 6 of 11 (54.5% win share); Mid ($5–10) underperforms its market price — A/E 0.48 (2 from 28).
  • Data note: settling position is unknown for 104 runners in this sample, which dilutes the pace numbers.

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions (+10m ±1m) covers only 1 runnings — too small to lean on.

  • For the record: nothing in that limited data stands out; the overall numbers above carry the read.

Jockeys & trainers

  • Jockey Craig Grylls: 23 from 122 (18.9%) in the last 90 days (6 of those in the last 30) — rides #5 Canavese here.
  • Jockey Michael Mc Nab: 26 from 140 (18.6%) in the last 90 days — rides #6 With Grace here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
1600m · 11 races (11 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)40327.3%7.5%0.64
Middle (5–9)54654.5%11.1%1.10
Wide (10+)33218.2%6.1%0.66

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)719.1%14.3%0.83
On-pace (4–6)500%0%0.00
Midfield (7–10)719.1%14.3%1.90
Backmarkers (11+)400%0%0.00
Unknown104981.8%8.7%0.84

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)200%0%0.00
Pop ($2–5)13654.5%46.2%1.64
Mid ($5–10)28218.2%7.1%0.48
Roughie (>$10)84327.3%3.6%0.69

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.