Tauranga R2

11:29Happy Hire Mdn

1400mMaidenRail: Out 10m

Races1 2 3 4 5 6Track

Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 11 July 14:09 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.

Happy Hire Mdn — a 1400m maiden at Tauranga, jumping at 11:29 on — ground, rail out 10m. 6 runners engaged.

At the trip

Tauranga has staged 32 races at 1400m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.

Barrier draw: Inside (1–4) wins the most races here — 14 of 32 (43.8% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
Pace: Settle position 1–3 and Settle position 7–10 win the most races here — 3 of 32 each (9.4% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
Market: Mid ($5–10) wins the most races here — 14 of 32 (43.8% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
Data note: settling position is unknown for 244 runners in this sample, which dilutes the pace numbers.

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions (+10m ±1m) covers only 2 runnings — too small to lean on.

For the record: Pop ($2–5) accounted for 2 of the 2 winners (2 from 5 runners, A/E 1.39) in that limited data — colour, not signal; the overall numbers above carry more weight.

Jockeys & trainers

Jockey Craig Grylls: 23 from 122 (18.9%) in the last 90 days (6 of those in the last 30) — rides #3 Stralsund here.
Trainer Ms D Logan is 4 from 17 at today’s meeting profile (23.5% strike, A/E 2.67) and has #3 Stralsund here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance

1400m · 32 races (32 winners)

Barrier draw

	Runs	Wins	% Win	SR	A/E
Inside (1–4)	120	14	43.8%	11.7%	1.03
Middle (5–9)	145	11	34.4%	7.6%	0.65
Wide (10+)	82	7	21.9%	8.5%	0.94

Settling position

	Runs	Wins	% Win	SR	A/E
Leaders (1–3)	27	3	9.4%	11.1%	0.73
On-pace (4–6)	27	2	6.2%	7.4%	0.87
Midfield (7–10)	33	3	9.4%	9.1%	1.02
Backmarkers (11+)	16	1	3.1%	6.2%	0.69
Unknown	244	23	71.9%	9.4%	0.85

Market (SP)

	Runs	Wins	% Win	SR	A/E
Odds-on (≤$2)	5	1	3.1%	20%	0.37
Pop ($2–5)	42	8	25%	19%	0.66
Mid ($5–10)	90	14	43.8%	15.6%	1.10
Roughie (>$10)	209	8	25%	3.8%	0.78

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.