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← Mt IsaMonday 13 July 2026

Mt Isa R3

13:48Nutrien Harcourts Hcp (50)
1450mRestricted 50Rail: True
Race AnalysisStatistics
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Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 12 July 18:17 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.

Nutrien Harcourts Hcp (50) — a 1450m restricted 50 at Mt Isa, jumping at 13:48 on — ground, rail true. 7 runners engaged.

At the trip

Mt Isa has staged 8 races at 1450m in our sample — indicative rather than conclusive.

  • Barrier draw: Middle (5–9) wins the most races here — 5 of 8 (62.5% win share); Inside (1–4) underperforms its market price — A/E 0.60 (3 from 30).
  • Pace: Settle position 1–3 wins the most races here — 4 of 8 (50.0% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 5 of 8 (62.5% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Data note: settling position is unknown for 14 runners in this sample, which dilutes the pace numbers.

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions covers 8 runnings — indicative rather than conclusive.

  • Barrier draw: read holds — Middle (5–9) again on top: A/E 1.14 (5 from 29).
  • Pace: read holds — Settle position 4–6 again on top: A/E 1.07 (2 from 18).
  • Market: read holds — Pop ($2–5) again on top: A/E 0.95 (5 from 18).

Jockeys & trainers

  • Jockey Jess Emmerson: 17 from 73 (23.3%) in the last 90 days (8 of those in the last 30) — rides #4 The Tyler here.
  • Jockey Mitch Goring: 20 from 82 (24.4%) in the last 90 days (7 of those in the last 30) — rides #3 Top Act here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
1450m · 8 races (8 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)30337.5%10%0.60
Middle (5–9)29562.5%17.2%1.14
Wide (10+)100%0%0.00

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)18450%22.2%0.94
On-pace (4–6)18225%11.1%1.07
Midfield (7–10)1000%0%0.00
Unknown14225%14.3%0.83

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)2112.5%50%0.90
Pop ($2–5)18562.5%27.8%0.95
Mid ($5–10)16112.5%6.2%0.45
Roughie (>$10)24112.5%4.2%0.86

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.