Mt Isa R5

15:07Nutrien Harcourts Hcp (C3)
1000mClass 3Rail: True
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Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 12 July 18:17 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.

Nutrien Harcourts Hcp (C3)a 1000m class 3 at Mt Isa, jumping at 15:07 on ground, rail true. 8 runners engaged.

At the trip

Mt Isa has staged 7 races at 1000m in our sample — too small to base a decision on.

  • Barrier draw: Middle (5–9) wins the most races here — 5 of 7 (71.4% win share); Inside (1–4) underperforms its market price — A/E 0.58 (2 from 23).
  • Pace: Settle position 1–3 wins the most races here — 4 of 7 (57.1% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 3 of 7 (42.9% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Data note: settling position is unknown for 14 runners in this sample, which dilutes the pace numbers.

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions covers only 7 runnings — too small to lean on.

  • For the record: Middle (5–9) accounted for 5 of the 7 winners (5 from 21 runners, A/E 1.09) in that limited data — colour, not signal; the overall numbers above carry more weight.

Jockeys & trainers

  • Jockey Jess Emmerson: 17 from 73 (23.3%) in the last 90 days (8 of those in the last 30) — rides #9 Whiskey River here.
  • Jockey Mitch Goring: 20 from 82 (24.4%) in the last 90 days (7 of those in the last 30) — rides #1 Bigcat here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
1000m · 7 races (7 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)23228.6%8.7%0.58
Middle (5–9)21571.4%23.8%1.09
Wide (10+)300%0%0.00

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)15457.1%26.7%1.18
On-pace (4–6)13114.3%7.7%0.41
Midfield (7–10)500%0%0.00
Unknown14228.6%14.3%0.84

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)3228.6%66.7%1.08
Pop ($2–5)13342.9%23.1%0.76
Mid ($5–10)13228.6%15.4%1.06
Roughie (>$10)1800%0%0.00

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.