SkyCity (Bm72)
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 3 at Morphettville
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
The pressure in this race is likely to come from the horses drawn wide. With at least two runners who possess tactical speed drawn in double-digit barriers, a genuine tempo is expected as they work to find positions before the first turn. The Heavy 9 track will make the pace feel even more testing.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
#9 Scandalize (13) appears the most likely to push forward from the wide gate to take up the running. #6 Big Brute (10) will also be prominent and could challenge for the lead or settle just outside it.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
This is the key group. #7 Tudaya (5) maps to get a perfect trail just behind the speed. #8 Tropical House (2) should enjoy an ideal run from the inside draw, potentially in the box seat. #13 Fast Tempo (1) can use the rails draw to kick up and settle in the first four or five. #1 Snoopy Now (7) and #3 Sav On Ice (11) are likely to be caught in a decision point; press forward and risk being three-wide, or take a sit just worse than midfield.
🏃♂️Midfield
#4 Mometz (3), who is often slowly away, can save ground on the fence in a mid-pack position. #5 Shadow Eagle (8), #10 Stomp'em (4), and #11 Gin Rummy (6) all profile as horses that will settle in the running line, mid-division.
🐌Backmarkers
#2 Stirrup Cup (12) consistently gets back and the wide draw cements that pattern here. #12 Mystical Wisdom (9) is another who settles near the rear and will be spotting the leaders a significant start.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail in the True position on a Heavy 9 track, the inside section is at high risk of being significantly chopped up as the meeting progresses. While saving ground is always important, by this race, jockeys may look to shift to the centre or wider parts of the track in the straight to find less disturbed ground. This can negate some of the advantage of low barriers and potentially assist those who have settled wider with cover.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The Heavy (9) rating is the single most important factor. The race will be a true test of stamina and wet-track prowess. Horses without proven form on genuinely deep ground will be at a significant disadvantage. The pace will feel more demanding, and horses that are ridden too aggressively early will be left with nothing in the final 200m. Backmarkers face a monumental task to quicken on this ground, placing a major emphasis on horses that can travel comfortably on-pace and sustain their effort.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 1600m start at Morphettville provides a long run down the back straight before the turn, which gives horses drawn wide like #9 Scandalize and #6 Big Brute an opportunity to cross without being in a mad dash. However, they will still have to expend energy to do so, especially on a Heavy 9 surface. The long Morphettville home straight typically gives all runners a chance, but on such a testing track, it will become a grueling war of attrition. Making up extensive ground from the back will be exceptionally difficult.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
As a BM72 for three-year-olds, this is a competitive race where weight can be a deciding factor, particularly in such testing conditions. The top weight, #1 Snoopy Now (60.5kg), faces a significant task. Conversely, lightweights like #9 Scandalize (51kg) and #10 Stomp'em (51kg) receive substantial relief, which is amplified on a heavy track and could allow them to outperform their ratings.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
This race will be a survival of the fittest. The genuine pace combined with the Heavy 9 track will ensure there are no hiding places. The map strongly suggests that runners positioned on-pace with cover, who possess proven heavy track ability, will hold a significant tactical advantage. They can conserve energy while the leaders absorb pressure and will be poised to strike at the top of the straight before the backmarkers can make their long, arduous runs. The race will likely develop into a grinding finish where sustained strength trumps a sharp turn of foot.
✅Most Advantaged
#7 Tudaya (5) The map looks perfect. Draws well to land in the one-one or a similar trailing position, has outstanding form on heavy ground including wins and placings on Heavy 8 tracks, and is rock-hard fit. This horse is set up to handle the conditions and the likely race shape better than any other.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#6 Big Brute (10) This horse faces a trifecta of negatives. It's drawn wide (10), meaning it must do work to find a position. It is likely to be part of a genuine tempo. Most importantly, its form includes a note for "Failed to handle going" on a Heavy 9 track in the past. It's extremely difficult to see it turning that around under these conditions. #2 Stirrup Cup (12) is also severely disadvantaged by its backmarking pattern from a wide gate on this surface.
💰Betting Considerations
- Primary Focus: Unwavering focus on proven heavy track performers is essential. Horses without a tick in this box are high-risk propositions.
- Key Contenders: #7 Tudaya is the clear standout from a map and conditions perspective and is a logical anchor for all bet types. #8 Tropical House is also advantaged by the draw but is an unknown on a truly heavy surface, making it a risk/reward play.
- Value/Exotics: #9 Scandalize is the wildcard. The light weight (51kg) and proven Heavy 10 form in New Zealand are major positives. If Felicity Atkinson can get across without burning too much fuel, it could be very tough to run down and represents potential value.
- Lay/Risk: #6 Big Brute appears a very strong risk given the combination of its draw and previous failure on a Heavy 9. #1 Snoopy Now with 60.5kg is also a major risk in these conditions. Backmarkers #2 Stirrup Cup and #12 Mystical Wisdom are hard to have as winning chances given the likely dynamics.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Snoopy Now
Stirrup Cup
Sav On Ice
Mometz
Shadow Eagle
Big Brute
Tudaya
Tropical House
Scandalize
Stomp'em
Gin Rummy
Mystical Wisdom
Fast Tempo
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