Historical overview
Across the 20 sampled runnings of 1200m at Pakenham Synthetic: On-pace (settle 4–6) — 6 of 20 winners (30.0% of winners, 12.2% strike, 0.97 A/E). From the gates, Middle (5–9) — 9 of 20 winners (45.0% of winners, 10.3% strike, 0.96 A/E).
Narrowed to today's rail position (1200m · True, 18 races): On-pace (settle 4–6) — 6 of 18 winners (33.3% of winners, 14.0% strike, 1.07 A/E).
Market history at this trip: odds-on favourites are 2 from 5 (40.0% strike, 0.69 A/E); roughies (>$10) supply 25.0% of winners.
Historical leans
- On-pace (settle 4–6) is the strongest settle band on the sample
- Middle (5–9) barriers lead the draw splits
Deterministic data read — figures restated from this track and trip's sampled runnings, no interpretation applied. The full speed-map read and model picks follow race morning after final scratchings.