← Ballarat Synthetic Sunday 12 July 2026

Ballarat Synthetic R1

12:00Global Turf Mdn Plate

1200mMaidenSyntheticRail: TrueFinal race-day data · updated 12 July 09:45 AEST

Races1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8Track

Model rankingsall runners · unfiltered

ConsensusOur key selections. A pick only appears when multiple models that we use agree on the same top selection — the highest-performing signal we publish. We only bet if we can get the Target price (20% above our Fair price) or better. Early prices shown here are a guide only. We reconcile our results only on those selections where the bookmaker SP is above the target price. You should make your own assessment if these selections fit your betting profile and never bet what you aren't prepared to lose. Our models aren't perfect, don't expect our selections to be.top 3

Ranked 1st

4. Sparkling Award

Luke Currie (4)

Fair

$4.11

Target

$4.93

Mkt

$3.00

Ranked 2nd

6. Baby Blue

(7)

Fair

$4.11

Target

$4.93

Mkt

$3.60

Ranked 3rd

7. Dream Suite

Jye McNeil (3)

Fair

$4.12

Target

$4.94

Mkt

$2.60

Fair — This is our model's price for this horse, any odds above this are considered good value.

Target — The minimum price to bet — 20% above Fair. Only back this runner at the Target price or longer.

Mkt — Market price as @ 09:30 AEST.
SP — Official Bookmaker Starting Price

The race read

Speed map. Predicted Race Pace is Moderate.

There is no confirmed leader in the map, with #3 Luvyalola, #4 Sparkling Award and #5 Valorada the most likely to be positive early. #1 Cosmic Command, #2 Haunted Kynexion, #6 Baby Blue and #8 Into The Music look to form the second wave, while #7 Dream Suite is the map unknown from a soft draw. Without a true designated leader, this shapes as a controlled synthetic 1200m where whoever rolls forward cheaply gets first use rather than a drag race.

The chances.

#4 Sparkling Award has the strongest model profile, top-three support from all six models and four first-rank calls, but the dossier says she is still a maiden after five starts and unproven on synthetic.
#6 Baby Blue is lightly raced and also appeared in every model top three; the wide draw and midfield map mean she needs the race to build rather than become a sprint home.
#7 Dream Suite is unraced, so the case is mostly profile and connections: Jye McNeil with T & C McEvoy has a 3-from-12 last-90-days combo and the inside draw helps an unknown map runner.

This race read was completed using AI. We prompt it with extensive real race data and actively manage parts of the output. We are actively reviewing and refining these prompts, if you have feedback about these commentaries, please send us a message to hello@hoofmetrics.com.Generated by gpt-5.5.

Sort byClick on a runner to expand analysisFinal models (6) · snapshot prices, not live

Click any runner to expand its full analysis. Settle boxes show the last runs' settling positions, latest first (green 1–3, orange 4–6, red 7+, grey unknown).

Predicted speed mapback → finish →

No data1

no recent settle

7Dream Suite(3)

Backmarkers0

settle 11+

—

Midfield4

settle 7–10

2Haunted Kynexion(2)

1Cosmic Command(5)

6Baby Blue(7)

8Into The Music(8)

On-pace3

settle 3–6

5Valorada(1)

4Sparkling Award(4)

3Luvyalola(6)

Leaders0

pushing for the lead

—

Pace-bias simulation● neutral pace| leader-favouring| backmarker-favouring

Average simulated finishing position under three pace scenarios — a wide gap between the ticks means the runner's chance swings with how the race is run. Shaded bands show ±1 SD of simulated finish within each scenario (where available).

back → finish →

Runner

12345678

Win %

#4 Sparkling Award

24.7%

#6 Baby Blue

23.2%

#7 Dream Suite

24.2%

#8 Into The Music

13.1%

#1 Cosmic Command

4.9%

#2 Haunted Kynexion

3.9%

#5 Valorada

3.6%

#3 Luvyalola

2.4%

Monte-Carlo finish-order simulation from our model probabilities (Plackett–Luce with pace-bias weighting) — win % is the neutral-pace simulated win chance, not a market price.