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← Ballarat SyntheticSunday 12 July 2026

Ballarat Synthetic R5

14:40Manhari Mdn Plate
1500mMaidenSyntheticRail: TrueFinal race-day data · updated 12 July 09:45 AEST
Race AnalysisStatistics
Races12345678
Model rankingsall runners · unfiltered
ConsensusOur key selections. A pick only appears when multiple models that we use agree on the same top selection — the highest-performing signal we publish. We only bet if we can get the Target price (20% above our Fair price) or better. Early prices shown here are a guide only. We reconcile our results only on those selections where the bookmaker SP is above the target price. You should make your own assessment if these selections fit your betting profile and never bet what you aren't prepared to lose. Our models aren't perfect, don't expect our selections to be.top 3
Ranked 1st
13. Just Curious
Neil Farley (4)
Fair
$3.96
Target
$4.75
Mkt
$7.50
Ranked 2nd
10. Wazza
John Allen (2)
Fair
$4.63
Target
$5.56
Mkt
$2.65
Ranked 3rd
5. Fierce Fiasco
Ryan Hurdle (5)
Fair
$5.48
Target
$6.58
Mkt
$3.10
Fair — This is our model's price for this horse, any odds above this are considered good value.
Target — The minimum price to bet — 20% above Fair. Only back this runner at the Target price or longer.
Mkt — Market price as @ 09:30 AEST.
SP — Official Bookmaker Starting Price
The race read

Speed map. Predicted Race Pace is Moderate.

There is no confirmed leader, but #1 Black Hex, #5 Fierce Fiasco, #7 Lion City Express and #8 Newcombe all sit in the on-pace group, so one of them should inherit control. #9 Vespasian, #12 Elegant Force and #13 Just Curious look the stalking/midfield line, while #10 Wazza is the unknown with barrier two. With no natural tearaway, the tempo should be governed by which on-pacer wants the rail first rather than a sustained burn.

The chances.

  • #13 Just Curious is the top model read with six-from-six support and comes through a synthetic 1500m maiden where the margin was only 0.6, but the pattern is get-back and she remains a maiden after eight starts.
  • #10 Wazza is unraced, drawn low and has six-from-six model top-three support; the Freedman/Allen pairing is 2 from 21 in the last 90 days, which is useful without being dominant.
  • #5 Fierce Fiasco maps handier than the top pick and has been close at 1607m/1462m recently, so he is the likely beneficiary if this leaderless race becomes a position-first contest.
This race read was completed using AI. We prompt it with extensive real race data and actively manage parts of the output. We are actively reviewing and refining these prompts, if you have feedback about these commentaries, please send us a message to hello@hoofmetrics.com.Generated by gpt-5.5.
Sort byClick on a runner to expand analysisFinal models (6) · snapshot prices, not live

Click any runner to expand its full analysis. Settle boxes show the last runs' settling positions, latest first (green 1–3, orange 4–6, red 7+, grey unknown).

Predicted speed mapback → finish →
No data1
no recent settle
10 Wazza(2)
Backmarkers0
settle 11+
—
Midfield2
settle 7–10
13 Just Curious(4)
9 Vespasian(8)
On-pace5
settle 3–6
7 Lion City Express(1)
8 Newcombe(3)
5 Fierce Fiasco(5)
12 Elegant Force(6)
1 Black Hex(7)
Leaders0
pushing for the lead
—
Pace-bias simulation● neutral pace| leader-favouring| backmarker-favouring

Average simulated finishing position under three pace scenarios — a wide gap between the ticks means the runner's chance swings with how the race is run. Shaded bands show ±1 SD of simulated finish within each scenario (where available).

back → finish →
Runner
12345678
Win %
#13 Just Curious
24.7%
#10 Wazza
21.5%
#5 Fierce Fiasco
18.2%
#9 Vespasian
10.9%
#12 Elegant Force
9.0%
#8 Newcombe
6.4%
#1 Black Hex
5.0%
#7 Lion City Express
4.2%

Monte-Carlo finish-order simulation from our model probabilities (Plackett–Luce with pace-bias weighting) — win % is the neutral-pace simulated win chance, not a market price.