Ballarat Synthetic R1

12:00Global Turf Mdn Plate
1200mMaidenSyntheticRail: TrueFinal race-day data · updated 12 July 09:45 AEST
Races12345678

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.

Global Turf Mdn Platea 1200m maiden at Ballarat Synthetic, jumping at 12:00 on Synthetic ground, rail true. 8 runners engaged.

At the trip

Ballarat Synthetic has staged 53 races at 1200m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: Inside (1–4) and Middle (5–9) win the most races here — 24 of 53 each (45.3% win share); Wide (10+) underperforms its market price — A/E 0.51 (5 from 84).
  • Pace: Settle position 1–3 wins the most races here — 24 of 53 (45.3% win share); Settle position 11+ underperforms its market price — A/E 0.00 (0 from 20).
  • Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 17 of 53 (32.1% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.

On Synthetic going

Filtering to 1200m · Synthetic covers 52 runnings — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: read holds — Middle (5–9) again on top: A/E 0.91 (23 from 206).
  • Pace: edge tilts to Settle position 1–3 — A/E 0.91 (24 from 150); overall it's Settle position 4–6.
  • Market: read holds — Mid ($5–10) again on top: A/E 0.96 (14 from 109).

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions covers 53 runnings — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: read holds — Middle (5–9) again on top: A/E 0.93 (24 from 209).
  • Pace: read holds — Settle position 4–6 again on top: A/E 0.90 (16 from 137).
  • Market: read holds — Mid ($5–10) again on top: A/E 1.02 (15 from 110).

Jockeys & trainers

  • Trainer T & C McEvoy: 25 from 143 (17.5%) in the last 90 days (11 of those in the last 30) — saddles #7 Dream Suite here.
  • Jockey Cian Macredmond is 10 from 103 at today’s meeting profile (9.7% strike, A/E 1.21) and has #8 Into The Music here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
1200m · 53 races (53 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)1892445.3%12.7%0.86
Middle (5–9)2092445.3%11.5%0.93
Wide (10+)8459.4%6%0.51

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)1532445.3%15.7%0.88
On-pace (4–6)1371630.2%11.7%0.90
Midfield (7–10)117815.1%6.8%0.71
Backmarkers (11+)2000%0%0.00
Unknown5559.4%9.1%0.79

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)241222.6%50%0.78
Pop ($2–5)821732.1%20.7%0.74
Mid ($5–10)1101528.3%13.6%1.02
Roughie (>$10)266917%3.4%0.84

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.