Ballarat Synthetic R2
SP — Official Bookmaker Starting Price
Speed map. Predicted Race Pace is Genuine.
#1 Australian Legacy and #3 Frosted Miss are the two obvious speed influences, drawn two and one, so they should own the first 300 metres. #2 Cicconi Rain, #5 Lady In Red and #9 Snitchy are likely to camp behind them, while #7 Massalia is the debut map query from the outside gate. In a six-runner 1100m maiden, two leaders is enough to keep the tempo honest without guaranteeing a collapse.
The chances.
- #1 Australian Legacy is the clear model consensus, ranked first by all six models, and the latest race evidence says he can lead from a low draw after settling first on debut.
- #7 Massalia has no race record, no synthetic record and an outside gate, so the market has limited exposed evidence; the model support is the main positive with five of six top-three calls.
- #3 Frosted Miss has the inside gate and repeated early-position evidence, plus a 1000m placing in the form line, but resumes after 150 days and has no synthetic record yet.
Click any runner to expand its full analysis. Settle boxes show the last runs' settling positions, latest first (green 1–3, orange 4–6, red 7+, grey unknown).
Average simulated finishing position under three pace scenarios — a wide gap between the ticks means the runner's chance swings with how the race is run. Shaded bands show ±1 SD of simulated finish within each scenario (where available).
back → finish →Monte-Carlo finish-order simulation from our model probabilities (Plackett–Luce with pace-bias weighting) — win % is the neutral-pace simulated win chance, not a market price.