← Ballarat Synthetic Sunday 12 July 2026

Ballarat Synthetic R4

14:00Evergreen Turf (Bm66)

1500mBenchmark 66SyntheticRail: TrueFinal race-day data · updated 12 July 09:45 AEST

Races1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8Track

Model rankingsall runners · unfiltered

ConsensusOur key selections. A pick only appears when multiple models that we use agree on the same top selection — the highest-performing signal we publish. We only bet if we can get the Target price (20% above our Fair price) or better. Early prices shown here are a guide only. We reconcile our results only on those selections where the bookmaker SP is above the target price. You should make your own assessment if these selections fit your betting profile and never bet what you aren't prepared to lose. Our models aren't perfect, don't expect our selections to be.top 3

Ranked 1st

8. Zeshadow

John Allen (2)

Fair

$2.66

Target

$3.19

Mkt

$2.80

Ranked 2nd

1. Autumnheat

Cian Macredmond (1)

Fair

$4.45

Target

$5.34

Mkt

$3.50

Ranked 3rd

5. Amphactor

Brad Rawiller (3)

Fair

$4.46

Target

$5.35

Mkt

$3.60

Fair — This is our model's price for this horse, any odds above this are considered good value.

Target — The minimum price to bet — 20% above Fair. Only back this runner at the Target price or longer.

Mkt — Market price as @ 09:30 AEST.
SP — Official Bookmaker Starting Price

The race read

Speed map. Predicted Race Pace is Slow to Moderate.

This four-horse race has no designated leader, but #1 Autumnheat, #5 Amphactor and #8 Zeshadow all map in the first line, leaving #4 Savvie Blanc as the only obvious trailer. With three of four wanting handy spots, the race should be tactical rather than genuinely fast: riders can look across, find positions and then quicken from the 600m. The small field makes barrier position less important than who controls the tempo.

The chances.

#8 Zeshadow is the six-from-six model consensus and has the strongest synthetic clue, with one win and one second from three synthetic starts plus the Allen/Noblet pairing 4 from 12 at this track.
#1 Autumnheat has a solid 13-start profile with two wins and three seconds, draws the fence and has the Cumani/Macredmond combo 3 from 24 in the last 90 days, but resumes after 238 days.
#5 Amphactor brings the deepest racing base, 33 starts with eight seconds and four thirds, and recent runs around 1500m to 1800m keep him relevant if the small field turns into a stamina test.

This race read was completed using AI. We prompt it with extensive real race data and actively manage parts of the output. We are actively reviewing and refining these prompts, if you have feedback about these commentaries, please send us a message to hello@hoofmetrics.com.Generated by gpt-5.5.

Sort byClick on a runner to expand analysisFinal models (6) · snapshot prices, not live

Click any runner to expand its full analysis. Settle boxes show the last runs' settling positions, latest first (green 1–3, orange 4–6, red 7+, grey unknown).

Predicted speed mapback → finish →

Backmarkers0

settle 11+

—

Midfield0

settle 7–10

—

On-pace4

settle 3–6

1Autumnheat(1)

8Zeshadow(2)

5Amphactor(3)

4Savvie Blanc(4)

Leaders0

pushing for the lead

—

Pace-bias simulation● neutral pace| leader-favouring| backmarker-favouring

Average simulated finishing position under three pace scenarios — a wide gap between the ticks means the runner's chance swings with how the race is run. Shaded bands show ±1 SD of simulated finish within each scenario (where available).

back → finish →

Runner

1234

Win %

#8 Zeshadow

38.5%

#1 Autumnheat

22.7%

#5 Amphactor

20.8%

#4 Savvie Blanc

18.0%

Monte-Carlo finish-order simulation from our model probabilities (Plackett–Luce with pace-bias weighting) — win % is the neutral-pace simulated win chance, not a market price.