← Ballarat Synthetic Sunday 12 July 2026

Ballarat Synthetic R6

15:20Hygain Edge (Bm66)

1400mBenchmark 66SyntheticRail: TrueFinal race-day data · updated 12 July 09:45 AEST

Races1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8Track

Model rankingsall runners · unfiltered

ConsensusOur key selections. A pick only appears when multiple models that we use agree on the same top selection — the highest-performing signal we publish. We only bet if we can get the Target price (20% above our Fair price) or better. Early prices shown here are a guide only. We reconcile our results only on those selections where the bookmaker SP is above the target price. You should make your own assessment if these selections fit your betting profile and never bet what you aren't prepared to lose. Our models aren't perfect, don't expect our selections to be.top 3

Ranked 1st

6. Vianarra

Craig Newitt (3)

Fair

$4.29

Target

$5.15

Mkt

$3.40

Ranked 2nd

11. Crossoverkid

Neil Farley (1)

Fair

$4.29

Target

$5.15

Mkt

$8.50

Ranked 3rd

9. Puglia

Holly Durnan (2)

Fair

$5.00

Target

$6.00

Mkt

$3.20

Fair — This is our model's price for this horse, any odds above this are considered good value.

Target — The minimum price to bet — 20% above Fair. Only back this runner at the Target price or longer.

Mkt — Market price as @ 09:30 AEST.
SP — Official Bookmaker Starting Price

The race read

Speed map. Predicted Race Pace is Moderate to Genuine.

#6 Vianarra is the sole mapped leader from barrier three, with #7 Champagne Jenni, #9 Puglia, #10 Rose Of Shalaa and #12 Wild Ruby all in the chasing line. #11 Crossoverkid is the only midfield runner, so the race can become leader-controlled unless the on-pace quartet press too hard. In a six-runner 1400m race, one leader with four close attendants usually produces honest pressure but not a mad scramble.

The chances.

#6 Vianarra is the top model selection, has 11 runs at 1400m for one win and four placings, and gets the tactical advantage of being the only named leader.
#11 Crossoverkid is the off-speed alternative with six-from-six model support and a string of midfield settling positions, but resumes after 120 days and has no synthetic record.
#9 Puglia is well suited to 1400m on the dossier, with one win and three placings from six at the trip, and the Alexander/Durnan pairing is a sharp 2 from 3 in the last 90 days despite the long break.

This race read was completed using AI. We prompt it with extensive real race data and actively manage parts of the output. We are actively reviewing and refining these prompts, if you have feedback about these commentaries, please send us a message to hello@hoofmetrics.com.Generated by gpt-5.5.

Sort byClick on a runner to expand analysisFinal models (6) · snapshot prices, not live

Click any runner to expand its full analysis. Settle boxes show the last runs' settling positions, latest first (green 1–3, orange 4–6, red 7+, grey unknown).

Predicted speed mapback → finish →

Backmarkers0

settle 11+

—

Midfield3

settle 7–10

11Crossoverkid(1)

9Puglia(2)

10Rose Of Shalaa(6)

On-pace3

settle 3–6

6Vianarra(3)

7Champagne Jenni(4)

12Wild Ruby(5)

Leaders0

pushing for the lead

—

Pace-bias simulation● neutral pace| leader-favouring| backmarker-favouring

Average simulated finishing position under three pace scenarios — a wide gap between the ticks means the runner's chance swings with how the race is run. Shaded bands show ±1 SD of simulated finish within each scenario (where available).

back → finish →

Runner

123456

Win %

#6 Vianarra

23.7%

#11 Crossoverkid

23.2%

#9 Puglia

19.9%

#12 Wild Ruby

16.4%

#10 Rose Of Shalaa

8.8%

#7 Champagne Jenni

8.0%

Monte-Carlo finish-order simulation from our model probabilities (Plackett–Luce with pace-bias weighting) — win % is the neutral-pace simulated win chance, not a market price.