Ballarat Synthetic R2

12:40Ballarat Electrical Company Mdn Plate
1100mMaidenSyntheticRail: TrueFinal race-day data · updated 12 July 09:45 AEST
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For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.

Ballarat Electrical Company Mdn Platea 1100m maiden at Ballarat Synthetic, jumping at 12:40 on Synthetic ground, rail true. 6 runners engaged.

At the trip

Ballarat Synthetic has staged 18 races at 1100m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: Inside (1–4) wins the most races here — 10 of 18 (55.6% win share); Wide (10+) underperforms its market price — A/E 0.39 (1 from 26).
  • Pace: Settle position 1–3 wins the most races here — 11 of 18 (61.1% win share); Settle position 7–10 underperforms its market price — A/E 0.47 (1 from 36).
  • Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 5 of 18 (27.8% win share); Roughie (>$10) underperforms its market price — A/E 0.53 (2 from 90).

On Synthetic going

Filtering to 1100m · Synthetic covers 18 runnings — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: read holds — Middle (5–9) again on top: A/E 0.91 (7 from 65).
  • Pace: read holds — Settle position 1–3 again on top: A/E 1.09 (11 from 48).
  • Market: edge tilts to Odds-on (≤$2) — A/E 1.46 (8 from 9); overall it's Mid ($5–10).

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions covers 18 runnings — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: read holds — Middle (5–9) again on top: A/E 0.91 (7 from 65).
  • Pace: read holds — Settle position 1–3 again on top: A/E 1.09 (11 from 48).
  • Market: edge tilts to Odds-on (≤$2) — A/E 1.46 (8 from 9); overall it's Mid ($5–10).

Jockeys & trainers

  • Trainer Mitchell Freedman: 6 from 38 (15.8%) in the last 30 days — saddles #2 Cicconi Rain here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
1100m · 18 races (18 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)641055.6%15.6%0.88
Middle (5–9)65738.9%10.8%0.91
Wide (10+)2615.6%3.8%0.39

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)481161.1%22.9%1.09
On-pace (4–6)46422.2%8.7%0.58
Midfield (7–10)3615.6%2.8%0.47
Backmarkers (11+)700%0%0.00
Unknown18211.1%11.1%0.84

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)9844.4%88.9%1.46
Pop ($2–5)26527.8%19.2%0.62
Mid ($5–10)30316.7%10%0.70
Roughie (>$10)90211.1%2.2%0.53

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.