Ballarat Synthetic R5

14:40Manhari Mdn Plate
1500mMaidenSyntheticRail: TrueFinal race-day data · updated 12 July 09:45 AEST
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For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.

Manhari Mdn Platea 1500m maiden at Ballarat Synthetic, jumping at 14:40 on Synthetic ground, rail true. 8 runners engaged.

At the trip

Ballarat Synthetic has staged 35 races at 1500m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: Middle (5–9) wins the most races here — 15 of 35 (42.9% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Pace: Settle position 1–3 wins the most races here — 13 of 35 (37.1% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 14 of 35 (40.0% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.

On Synthetic going

Filtering to 1500m · Synthetic covers 33 runnings — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: read holds — Wide (10+) again on top: A/E 0.93 (8 from 78).
  • Pace: read holds — Settle position 4–6 again on top: A/E 0.95 (11 from 91).
  • Market: edge tilts to Odds-on (≤$2) — A/E 1.60 (8 from 9); overall it's Mid ($5–10).

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions covers 35 runnings — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: read holds — Wide (10+) again on top: A/E 0.87 (8 from 80).
  • Pace: read holds — Settle position 4–6 again on top: A/E 0.91 (11 from 97).
  • Market: edge tilts to Odds-on (≤$2) — A/E 1.60 (8 from 9); overall it's Mid ($5–10).

Jockeys & trainers

  • Jockey Brad Rawiller: 29 from 186 (15.6%) in the last 90 days — rides #7 Lion City Express here.
  • Trainer Mitchell Freedman: 6 from 38 (15.8%) in the last 30 days — saddles #10 Wazza here.
  • Jockey Cian Macredmond is 10 from 103 at today’s meeting profile (9.7% strike, A/E 1.21) and has #12 Elegant Force here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
1500m · 35 races (35 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)1191234.3%10.1%0.81
Middle (5–9)1511542.9%9.9%0.85
Wide (10+)80822.9%10%0.87

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)991337.1%13.1%0.79
On-pace (4–6)971131.4%11.3%0.91
Midfield (7–10)105822.9%7.6%0.88
Backmarkers (11+)2912.9%3.4%0.68
Unknown2025.7%10%0.75

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)9822.9%88.9%1.60
Pop ($2–5)671440%20.9%0.71
Mid ($5–10)69822.9%11.6%0.85
Roughie (>$10)205514.3%2.4%0.67

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.