Ballarat Synthetic R6

15:20Hygain Edge (Bm66)
1400mBenchmark 66SyntheticRail: TrueFinal race-day data · updated 12 July 09:45 AEST
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For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.

Hygain Edge (Bm66)a 1400m benchmark 66 at Ballarat Synthetic, jumping at 15:20 on Synthetic ground, rail true. 6 runners engaged.

At the trip

Ballarat Synthetic has staged 32 races at 1400m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: Inside (1–4) wins the most races here — 14 of 32 (43.8% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Pace: Settle position 1–3 wins the most races here — 13 of 32 (40.6% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 20 of 32 (62.5% win share); Mid ($5–10) underperforms its market price — A/E 0.55 (4 from 55).

On Synthetic going

Filtering to 1400m · Synthetic covers 31 runnings — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: read holds — Wide (10+) again on top: A/E 0.90 (5 from 47).
  • Pace: edge tilts to Settle position 1–3 — A/E 0.89 (13 from 81); overall it's Settle position 4–6.
  • Market: read holds — Pop ($2–5) again on top: A/E 1.13 (19 from 56).

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions covers 32 runnings — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: read holds — Wide (10+) again on top: A/E 0.90 (5 from 47).
  • Pace: read holds — Settle position 4–6 again on top: A/E 0.87 (9 from 80).
  • Market: read holds — Pop ($2–5) again on top: A/E 1.12 (20 from 60).

Jockeys & trainers

  • Trainer Archie Alexander: 11 from 66 (16.7%) in the last 90 days — saddles #9 Puglia here.
  • Trainer Mitchell Freedman: 6 from 38 (15.8%) in the last 30 days — saddles #12 Wild Ruby here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
1400m · 32 races (32 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)1161443.8%12.1%0.84
Middle (5–9)1291340.6%10.1%0.80
Wide (10+)47515.6%10.6%0.90

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)841340.6%15.5%0.85
On-pace (4–6)80928.1%11.2%0.87
Midfield (7–10)73618.8%8.2%0.83
Backmarkers (11+)1300%0%0.00
Unknown42412.5%9.5%0.82

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)11412.5%36.4%0.58
Pop ($2–5)602062.5%33.3%1.12
Mid ($5–10)55412.5%7.3%0.55
Roughie (>$10)166412.5%2.4%0.62

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.