HoofMetricsdata · model · edge
← TamworthFriday 3 July 2026

Tamworth R8

16:24Shay Brennan Constructions (Bm74)
1000mBenchmark 74Rail: TrueEarly preview · published 2 July 14:42 AEST — updated race morning
Races12345678
Early mail — tomorrow's fields. Fields, barriers and stats published early (2 July 14:42 AEST). Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.
Early model rankings — previewearly predictions · not final
Early model predictions only. These WILL MOST LIKELY change with final scratchings, jockey changes and track condition updates — the final day's predictions and commentary are published race morning.
Early model — previewEarly predictions — will change with final scratchings, jockeys and track conditionEntropy3.12top 3
Ranked 1st
1. Speck
Anna Weatherlake (10)
Ranked 2nd
4. Struff
Aaron Bullock (4)
Ranked 3rd
3. Not Written Off
Liberty Smyth (3)
Predicted speed mapback → finish →
Backmarkers2
settle 11+
11 Kate's Tiara(8)
9 Manage The Cycle(12)
Midfield4
settle 7–10
7 In Spades(1)
10 Demarcate(2)
4 Struff(4)
2 Happy Saturday(7)
On-pace3
settle 3–6
5 Cresta Run(5)
8 It Stays In Vegas(6)
1 Speck(10)
Leaders3
pushing for the lead
3 Not Written Off(3)
12 Pretty Cheeky(9)
6 Giddy Girl(11)

Historical overview

Across the 46 sampled runnings of 1000m at Tamworth: Leaders (settle 1–3) — 19 of 46 winners (39.6% of winners, 17.6% strike, 1.1 A/E). No winner in this sample settled 11+ back. From the gates, Middle (5–9) — 25 of 46 winners (52.1% of winners, 12.5% strike, 1.02 A/E).

Narrowed to today's rail position (1000m · True, 22 races): Leaders (settle 1–3) — 12 of 22 winners (52.2% of winners, 21.1% strike, 1.22 A/E).

Market history at this trip: odds-on favourites are 3 from 7 (42.9% strike, 0.66 A/E); roughies (>$10) supply 14.6% of winners.

Historical leans

  • Leaders (settle 1–3) is the strongest settle band on the sample
  • Middle (5–9) barriers lead the draw splits

Deterministic data read — figures restated from this track and trip's sampled runnings, no interpretation applied. The full speed-map read and model picks follow race morning after final scratchings.

This overview is generated automatically from real race data by the HoofMetrics data engine — it is not AI-written. If you have feedback, email hello@hoofmetrics.com.Generated by HoofMetrics data engine (deterministic).

Full speed-map read and model picks arrive race morning, once final scratchings and track condition are known.

Distance stats

Distance
1000m · 46 races (48 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)1751531.2%8.6%0.61
Middle (5–9)2002552.1%12.5%1.02
Wide (10+)68816.7%11.8%1.26

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)1081939.6%17.6%1.10
On-pace (4–6)1071327.1%12.1%0.86
Midfield (7–10)103612.5%5.8%0.61
Backmarkers (11+)2000%0%0.00
Unknown1051020.8%9.5%0.82

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)736.2%42.9%0.66
Pop ($2–5)983266.7%32.7%1.11
Mid ($5–10)85612.5%7.1%0.53
Roughie (>$10)253714.6%2.8%0.64